036
FXUS64 KBMX 151955
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
255 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

Convective development has begun this afternoon across western
portions of the area amidst a relative PWAT maximum of 2 inches and
downstream of weak mid-level troughing extending southwest from the
Ohio Valley into the Lower MS River Valley. Since moisture has been
steadily increasing over the past couple of days, it seems we`re in
a position to see at least scattered to numerous showers and storms
both today and tomorrow during peak heating hours, especially with
the weak cyclonic flow associated with the trough. A few strong
storms could develop producing mainly isolated downbursts, but
nothing out of the ordinary for summertime convection.

Additionally, heat remains a concern as the moist airmass is
resulting in humid conditions and low to mid 70s dewpoints. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect across southern portions of the area this
afternoon, but temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer
tomorrow. Will begin looking at extending and expanding the Heat
Advisory for tomorrow afternoon as heat indices look to reach 105F
for a good portion of our south and west. Still expecting showers
and storms to develop, so that could help to bring temperatures down
for some areas by mid to late afternoon. A general lull in activity
is expected tonight, but it will be humid with lows in the lower to
mid 70s.

86/Martin

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

Long term forecast is on track and lines up well with latest model
trends. Looking at an wet pattern with southwesterly flow through
a deep layer of the atmosphere. With a front approaching and
stalling over the area, elevated rain chances can be expected
through early next week. One trade off - cooler temperatures by
the weekend, with no heat advisories needed beyond Thursday.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

A more amplified pattern will take shape mid week as a broad mid- to
upper-level trough encompasses much of the eastern CONUS. This will
feature an associated cold front that is forecast to advance south
toward the Tennessee Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. As such,
increasing moisture along/ahead of the front will generally support
an increased presence of convection these days. PoPs remain 60-70%
for Wed, and increase to 70-80% for Thu as PWs range 1.9 to 2.3" by
then. While best flow aloft will remain to our north these days, the
additional forcing and slight increase in mid-level flow could
result in a stronger storm or two, considering ample boundary layer
moisture and afternoon instability. Thereafter, the surface front is
progged to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast region, becoming more
diffuse as well. However, it will continue to provide focus for
enhanced convective coverage into the weekend with indication that
low-level flow remains southerly/southwesterly in our area. Some
additional support aloft is expected from a jet streak positioning
to our north along with potential flow-embedded shortwaves. Thus,
the overall synoptic picture for the period suggests we`ll see
beneficial rain and a break from excessive heat, despite what could
be muggy afternoons/evenings with locally heavy rainfall.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1259 PM CDT MON JUL 15 2024

Scattered convection is expected to continue developing this
afternoon and becoming more numerous with time. Utilized a TEMPO for
TSRA at all terminals targeting the hours of peak heating and best
chances for development, per model guidance, but some adjustments
may need to be made as convection evolves. Otherwise, activity will
end after 03Z with high clouds expected overnight. Some terminals
may see a light fog tomorrow morning, but did not mention in the
TAFs at this point since confidence is low. Convection may begin
redeveloping late in this TAF period.

Note: AMD LTD TO WIND AND VIS at KASN UFN due to missing ceilings.

86/Martin

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain coverage increases each day this week, as moisture increases
with the approach of a front Wednesday into Thursday. Scattered
to numerous convective coverage can be expected Tuesday afternoon.
Minimum RH values will be near or above 50 percent beginning
Tuesday, with southwesterly 20 ft winds at 4-6mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     71  95  72  94 /  30  50  10  80
Anniston    73  93  74  92 /  40  60  20  80
Birmingham  75  95  75  95 /  30  50  10  80
Tuscaloosa  75  96  74  94 /  20  50  10  70
Calera      74  94  75  93 /  30  50  10  70
Auburn      73  92  74  91 /  50  60  20  70
Montgomery  75  95  74  95 /  40  60  20  70
Troy        74  94  74  94 /  40  60  20  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following
counties: Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Fayette-Jefferson-Lamar-Marion-
Pickens-Shelby-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Tuesday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Dallas-Elmore-Greene-Hale-Lowndes-Macon-
Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Russell-Sumter.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...86
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...86