038
FXUS64 KBMX 061756
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

A boundary draped over the state is allowing thunderstorms to
develop, with continued development expected through the afternoon
and evening. Though scattered showers could develop north of this
boundary, the main focus should be the southern half of the state
where instabilities will be around 3000 to 3500 J/kg. Winds will
be light, so any storm won`t be encouraged to move quickly. With
PW values max for this time of year, and light steering winds,
localized flooding may be possible in any slow moving and training
thunderstorms. Damaging winds are possible in any stronger
thunderstorms as well.

Tonight, activity should weaken and decrease in coverage
through the night, with fog development possible overnight. Models
are not holding on to this boundary moving any large distance
through the next 24 hours, so scattered to numerous activity is
possible again across the southern half of the state Sunday late
morning through the late afternoon.

With the northern half of the area expected to be under northwest
flow (being north of the boundary), will leave the Heat Advisory
valid for the southeastern counties now through Sunday evening.
If the boundary does meander, the counties in the Advisory might
need to be adjusted.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Beryl is forecast to make landfall along the Texas Gulf Coast on
Monday. This will coincide with southerly/southwesterly low- to mid-
level flow which will support moisture advection from the
northern Gulf Coast toward the Tennessee Valley. As such, PWs will
increase to near 2.0" or above area-wide Monday afternoon,
complementing diurnal instability which should foster scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms as temperatures increase to
the low 90s. Ample moisture will linger in the area on Tuesday,
and potentially increase further, as Beryl moves into eastern
Texas. Some guidance depicts PWs rising as high as 2.5". As a
result, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast once again for Tuesday afternoon, particularly as heights
begin a slow decrease in association with Beryl devolving to an
open-wave trough to our west. PoPs are ~70% for Tue. Thereafter,
Beryl should transition to the northeast, moving toward the TN and
OH Valleys. PoPs are on a slight decrease (still ~50%) owing to
the potential for a "dry slot" depicted in guidance Wed afternoon.
Nonetheless, with Beryl in the region, we`ll need to watch other
supportive factors for local impacts. The overall scenario
supports locally heavy rainfall in strongest showers/storms, and
there`s some signal for low-topped, rotating thunderstorms in the
region Tue/Wed should low- to mid-level wind fields east of
Beryl`s circulation remain intact and strong enough. Just
something to keep an eye on. Beryl`s remnants lift to our north
thereafter, and it`s a routine summer forecast for Thu/Fri.

40/Sizemore

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT SAT JUL 6 2024

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon.
KEET should be the northern most extent of the majority of the
activity, with only VCSH included in TAF sites north of KEET
through the afternoon. Any thunderstorm or strong shower that
moves over a TAF site could produce IFR visibilities due to a high
level of low level moisture. Fog development is possible
overnight, and have included mention in KEET, KANB, and KTCL for
now. Confidence is low in intensity of fog, so left MVFR
visibilities for now to show the trend. Scattered convection is
expected again on Sunday.

Note: AMD NOT SKED at KASN due to missing ceilings.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The region remains amidst a period of hot and humid weather that
is forecast to continue the next several days. This will provide
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms with elevated humidity
levels. Winds generally remain light and variable through the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  94  72  94 /  10  40  20  60
Anniston    72  91  74  92 /  20  50  30  60
Birmingham  74  94  75  94 /  20  40  20  60
Tuscaloosa  75  92  74  94 /  20  50  20  60
Calera      73  94  75  93 /  20  50  20  60
Auburn      73  90  74  90 /  30  70  40  70
Montgomery  75  92  74  93 /  40  70  30  60
Troy        74  92  73  92 /  50  80  40  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Sunday for the following counties:
Autauga-Barbour-Bullock-Chambers-Dallas-Elmore-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-
Montgomery-Pike-Russell-Tallapoosa.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....40
AVIATION...24