795
FXUS63 KBIS 061006
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
506 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (30 to 60%) are again
  expected today across western and central North Dakota.

- One more day of shower and thunderstorm chances (30 to 60%) on
  Sunday, with the better chances east.

- A gradual warming and drying trend is still expected for next
  week, with temperatures above normal by the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 504 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Quick update to expand POPs over the James River Valley.
Convection starting to flare up here along the sfc boundary and
in response to the incoming wave.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Currently, mid level S/WV continues to develop easterly into
the Dakotas, centered over southwest North Dakota, with a sfc
trough extending from south central into northeastern North
Dakota. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms persist along
the sfc trough, with an arc of showers wrapping around the main
circulation area of the mid level wave over my southwest. Expect
the activity along the sfc boundary to slowly diminish early
this morning as the boundary washes out/moves farther east.
Precipitation near the center of the mid level wave should
persist and develop eastward this morning as this feature
continues east along to slightly south of the ND/SD border.
While MLCAPE is decreasing, enough elevated instability present
to maintain thunder wording.

For today, expect another day of scattered showers and
thunderstorms with an unsettled atmosphere and decent
instability once again present over the local region. Shear
remain minimal so the threat for severe weather remains very
low. Mean flow aloft is weak today with a mid level trough over
the Northern Plains, so some potential for a few heavy rainers
with expected slow moving convection. Non-supercell Tor
parameters (NST) is also similar to the past couple of days, so
wouldn`t be surprised to see more funnel cloud reports during
the daytime. Showers and isolated storms will continue into this
evening, before diminishing later tonight as we lose heating.

Sunday looks like another active day, though we start to see the
better shower/storm coverage pushing more to the east as our
persistent trough sets up more over the Western Great Lakes
region and eastern Dakotas, in response to a strong upper level
ridge developing onshore over the west coastal region.

The aforementioned strong upper level ridge moving into the
western CONUS will continue to slowly nudge eastward through
next week. Ensemble blends continue to keep us in a
north/northwest flow pattern both Monday and Tuesday, and sure
enough NBM has now come in with some low POPs over my far east
both days. Most of our area will remain dry, though any wave
within the flow aloft could fire off diurnally driven
convection. Temperatures are still favored to slowly warm
through next week, finally approaching seasonal normal values
(low/mid 80s) by the middle of the week. Once the ridge moves
into and across the Rockies mid to late next week, temperatures
are favored to be above normal and the weather will be mainly
dry. High temperatures Thursday - Saturday are favored to be
well into the 80s and into the low/mid 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 111 AM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible across
central North Dakota tonight. Expect to see precipitation
activity decrease with time early this morning, though may
linger over far south central ND through the night and past
sunrise. The coverage of showers and storms is once again
expected to become more widespread across the state Saturday
afternoon. Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions and
light winds are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
DISCUSSION...NH
AVIATION...NH