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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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930 FXUS63 KBIS 150849 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 349 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms remain possible early this morning, mainly in and around the James River Valley. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 60 mph are the main threats. - Expect low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday, mainly across the west and south central. - Cooler weather returns through midweek with a modest warmup expected for the end of the week and into the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 347 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Quick update to clear all counties from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536 except for Dickey and LaMoure. We will likely be able to drop those two counties soon as well as convection continues to move out of the area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Western and central North Dakota continues to sit under the influence of broad upper level troughing. A surface low is currently located over south central North Dakota with an effective warm front extending east southeast down into the James River Valley. This boundary can be seen on radar, clearly associated with the arc of thunderstorms extending from southeast Sheridan county, over towards western Foster county, and down to near Jamestown. SPC mesoanalysis still suggests that 1500 to 2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and effective shear upwards of 60 knots remains in place where convection is ongoing. Thus, while the severe threat is slowing down, a few strong to severe storms will remain possible until this arc of convection moves out later this morning. Hail to the size of golf balls and wind gusts to 60 mph will be the main threats. Most of the CAMs have this activity finally moving out around 09z or 10z which seems reasonable. Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536 remains in effect for Foster, Stutsman, Emmons, Logan, McIntosh, LaMoure, and Dickey counties. Today will be cooler in the wake of the low and frontal system. Highs will range from the lower 70s in the vicinity of the Turtle Mountains, to the mid 80s southwest. Clouds will be decreasing through the day but increasing again across the north tonight. Highs will be very similar to today on Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper ridge to our west amplifies and we remain on the eastern slope in northwest flow aloft. The ridge starts to nudge towards us through the end of the week, promoting warming temperatures starting on Thursday with highs rising back into the lower 80s to lower 90s through the weekend. Regarding precipitation chances, a subtle wave will move down the ridge and bring the next low to medium chances (20 to 40 percent) of precipitation to the west and south central tonight and into Tuesday. We could see a few thunderstorms early with this activity but it should transition to mainly showers fairly quickly given meager instability. After this wave moves through we should generally be dry for the rest of the work week. The one exception could be on Friday when another wave may flatten the ridge briefly, bringing with it some low chances (20 percent) of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Thunderstorms continue across parts of central and eastern North Dakota, most likely to impact KJMS through the next few hours. Beyond that, a few isolated showers are possible across western North Dakota, but low confidence in timing and location. Through the day Monday, winds will generally be from the north-northwest at 10 to 15 knots. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...ZH AVIATION...Jones