909
FXUS63 KBIS 151942
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
242 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There`s a 30 to 60% chance of showers and maybe a few
  thunderstorms tonight through late Tuesday morning, with the higher
  chances across the west and south central.

- High temperatures warmup at the end of the week and into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

Diurnal cumulus have formed everywhere but southwest North
Dakota, where there is drier air aloft. These clouds should
stick around until sunset otherwise. The dry air aloft is
slowly moving east, so the cumulus will continue to erode in the
central and south central through the rest of the day. Aloft a
large upper level low is spinning in northern Manitoba and
moving southeast. With this, we are under the cyclonic northwest
flow through Wednesday. A surface low moving out of Montana and
into South Dakota will produce showers and possible
thunderstorms in the state. The highest chances will be across
western and south central parts of the state. No severe storms
are expected with very little CAPE anywhere. The shear is around
40kts so the showers and possible storms will be able to
sustain. The showers will move north to south in the mean 500mb
flow with the surface low providing more lift. Timing looks to
be around 2am CT through the late morning, ending in the south
central.

Wednesday and Thursday will be quiet under a broad ridge moving
in from the western CONUS. Temperatures will start to warm back
into the 80s and 90s, with the southwest the warmest. Thursday
night into Friday a small and quick moving short wave will move
through, producing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms
through the day Friday. The weekend looks like on and off slight
chances of thunderstorms with a few other kinks in the flow
creating lift. Temperatures will mostly be in the 80s through
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions through the period with winds from the northwest
or north gusting up to 20kts this afternoon. There is a 30
percent chance of showers and thunderstorms moving through
starting around 07z in the north central. Showers will spread
south through 16z, ending in the south central. Tuesday morning
around 14z MVFR ceilings are possible between KDIK, KBIS, and
KJMS to the South Dakota border through 18z Tuesday.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Smith
AVIATION...Smith