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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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074 FXUS63 KBIS 170300 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Below average high temperatures in the 70s are expected across all but southwest ND Wednesday. The southwest is expected to reach the low to mid 80s Wednesday. - High temperatures warm into the 80s across western and central North Dakota Thursday and through the weekend. This is near to slightly above average for mid to late July. A few readings in the lower 90s are possible in the southwest Thursday. - Dry weather is expected through Thursday, then low to medium chances (20% to 40%) for thunderstorms return Friday and Saturday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Quiet weather will prevail through the night as high pressure settles through the area. UPDATE Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 A few showers continue to slide through parts of north central North Dakota into the James River Valley, so have added isolated showers/storms to the forecast through mid-evening over this area. Otherwise, quiet weather prevails. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 An upper level ridge to our west will be the main player in our forecast through the weekend and into early next week. Currently, surface high pressure is situated over the Canadian Prairie Provinces and into North Dakota. An upper level low was situated over southern Ontario with a shortwave dropping south over eastern North Dakota. This impulse could produce isolated shower activity over eastern portions of central ND this afternoon. This afternoon and tonight...Expect partly cloudy skies this afternoon with seasonably cool temperatures ranging from the lower 70s Turtle Mountains to the James River Valley, to the lower 80s far southwest. Any lingering shower activity should quickly dissipate this evening with skies becoming mostly clear. Lows will be cool tonight, in the mid 40s to mid 50s. On Wednesday, the surface high currently over southern Canada drops into eastern North Dakota and Minnesota. Highs over most of the forecast area will be at or just few degrees cooler than today, while the southwest will be few degrees warmer. Sunny skies are expected Wednesday with light winds in the morning, turning southerly during the day. Thursday will bring temperatures into the lower 90s over the southwest, while most of the forecast area remains in the 80s. Temperatures in the 80s will then be the rule across western and central North Dakota through the weekend and into early next week. The NBM MaxT ensemble spread remains quite narrow and flat late this week through early next week, meaning a high confidence of uniform temperatures, mostly in the 80s (which is right around our normal highs for mid-late July) across western and central ND. Only as we get into the middle to end of next work week do we see the ensemble spread start to broaden out a bit. The aforementioned upper level ridge over the western U.S. pushes northward into Canada Friday and through the weekend. However a Hudson Bay low remains nearly steady through Saturday, keeping the ridge axis to our west. A weak wave propagating through the building western ridge may bring some low precipitation chances into western ND Thursday night into Friday morning. A late afternoon thunderstorm can`t be completely ruled out in the west due to the heating of the day. An impulse swinging around the Hudson Bay low will produce low to medium chances for thunderstorms Friday through Saturday. At this time, the potential for severe storms Friday through Saturday looks to be on the low side with mostly marginal instability and bulk shear over the area during this timeframe. Of course this far out, that could change. The latest CSU-ML probabilities keeps the risk of severe storms just south of the southwest portion of the state Thursday. Current Friday through Sunday probabilities also remain away from western and central ND. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 Isolated showers/weak thunderstorms possible over north central into eastern North Dakota through 03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...JJS DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...JJS