040
FXUS63 KBIS 172302
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
602 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average high temperatures in the 70s are expected across
  all but the southwest today, where highs are forecast into
  the mid 80s.

- High temperatures warm into the 80s across western and central
  North Dakota Thursday and through the weekend. This is near to
  slightly above average for mid to late July. A few readings in
  the low 90s are possible in the southwest Thursday.

- Dry weather is expected through Thursday, then a 20 to 40
  percent chance of showers and thunderstorms return Friday and
  Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Quiet weather continues over the area. The only feature that
really catches your eye is a few denser areas of smoke aloft
from the Canadian wildfires are trying to push into western
North Dakota. So far this is not reflected in any surface
observations at this point but will continue to monitor.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Today, an upper level ridge has stalled to the west of North
Dakota, with a languishing Hudson Bay low blocking its
progresses further eastward. Of note is that this ridging
pattern and resultant northwesterly flow will allow for smoke
aloft from Canadian wildfires to remain over the forecast area
for at least the short term. A surface high pressure center is
migrating into the northern Plains from the southern Canadian
Prairies, promoting generally clear skies outside of some fair-
weather cumulus. High temperatures are at or slightly below
seasonable normals, forecast from the 70s across northern and
central North Dakota, up to the mid 80s in the southwest. Winds
will remains generally light, becoming increasingly easterly
through the evening and then southerly overnight.

On Thursday, the Hudson Bay low will be displaced eastward and
allow the ridge axis to being to shift over the northern
Prairies. The continue progression of this ridge will promote
comparably warmer weather across the forecast area through the
end of this week and into the next. Highs Thursday afternoon
will broadly be in the 80s, with temperatures in the west
peaking into the lower 90. A shortwave impulse will move begin
to move down the ridging pattern Thursday evening and overnight,
promoting the next chances (10 to 30%)for precipitation across
our west Thursday evening.

This impulse will make its way into the forecast area by early
Friday morning, and will invite modest chances for thunderstorms
through the day, along with widespread precipitation chances
(30 to 50%). With modest gulf moisture returns into North Dakota
Thursday and early Friday, model instability across portions of
the south central has begun to peak into the 2000 to 2500 J/KG
range Friday afternoon, inviting the possibility for some
stronger storms to develop in our southern counties, mainly
around the South Dakota border. The exact timing of this event
is currently suspect, however, with the better forcing and
sufficient shear moving through the forecast area in the morning
while the most recent model runs have the area fairly capped.
By the time this capping diminishes and MUCAPE being to ramp up
across the area, in the mid afternoon bulk shear values drop to
20 knots or less, thus limited severe weather concerns at this
time. This is reflect by the CSU Machine Learning which keeps
the severe potential across the border in South Dakota, where
the best shear is currently thought to be available Friday
afternoon. There may be a brief window where a more energetic
cell could produce hail approaching severe criteria, but the
current predictability is low. Of note is that the progression
of this system Friday afternoon may bring some of the smoke
aloft down toward the surface, though as things stand it would
be more noticeable by the nose than any sort significant
visibility reductions. Otherwise highs on Friday will broadly be
in the 80s across much of North Dakota.

This late summer pattern will continue through the weekend,
with northwesterly flow and weak embedded disturbances promoting
modest (10 to 30%) chances for precipitation and occasional
thunderstorms through early Monday. Conditions then dry out,
with highs expected to remain broadly in the 80s through the
early half of next week as the ridge continues to slowly push
into the northern Plains. Highs will again begin to peak into
the lower 90s in the southwest starting Wednesday as the thermal
axis slides into our west, potentially heralding a period of
above normal temperatures over the forecast area as favored by
the current Climate Prediction Center 6-10 and 8-14 day
outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Telken
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...JJS