003
FXUS63 KBIS 181730
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High temperatures warm into the 80s today through the weekend.
  This is near to slightly above average for mid to late July. A
  few readings in the low 90s are expected in the southwest
  today.

- Isolated showers, potentially with a few rumbles of thunder,
  are possible late this afternoon or early evening mainly in
  the southwest to north central. There is then a 20 to 50
  percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday and a 20 to
  30 percent chance Saturday.

- Severe weather chances are very low through this weekend,
  though a strong storm or two isn`t out of the question on
  Friday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Mainly clear, calm, and dry conditions persist across western
and central North Dakota for this afternoon update. No updates
to the forecast were made.

UPDATE
Issued at 830 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

Quiet weather persists across western and central North Dakota
this morning with light winds generally out of the southeast
and mainly clear skies, though some scattered high clouds can
be found over portions of the southwest. The forecast remains on
track at this time.

UPDATE
Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

The forecast remains on track with light winds and mostly clear
skies.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

A ridge persists west of the Northern Plains, although the
associated thermal ridge will work a bit further eastward today.
This will bring warmer upper level temperatures over western
and especially southwestern ND. Combined with weak southerly
flow at the surface, this should allow the southwest to warm
into the low 90s, while the rest of the forecast area stays in
the 80s. Overall, these temperatures are near to slightly above
average for this time of year.

Due to limited moisture being available and lack of a good
forcing mechanism, the odds of precipitation developing this
afternoon and evening are fairly low. That said, a 20 percent
chance of isolated showers, perhaps with a few rumbles of
thunder, were added to the forecast for late this afternoon and
into the early evening. Should any showers or thunderstorms
develop, areas from the southwest to north central are the most
favorable for precipitation development.

With a little better forcing and moisture through the
mid-levels, better precipitation chances return mainly for the
late afternoon and early evenings on Friday and Saturday. With
models suggesting little deep layer shear, severe weather
chances seem very low at this time. However, if a pocket of
better instability can co-locate with mediocre shear when
storms are forced; a strong storm or two is not out of the
question Friday afternoon/evening.

Overall, next week looks mostly dry through at least mid-week. A
few weak waves of energy could provide isolated showers and
thunderstorms mainly in the east, but nothing looks widespread
at this point in time. High temperatures Friday through Monday
look seasonable with most locations reaching the 80s. Towards
the latter half of the week, another west CONUS ridge may begin
to amplify resulting in similar conditions to this week where
most locations remain in the 80s, but the west and especially
southwest wind up being a little warmer.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2024

VFR ceilings and visibility are expected at all terminals
throughout the 18Z TAF period. Low chances chances for showers
and potentially a thunderstorm will develop across portions of
the southwest and south central this afternoon, though
confidence is too low to place it at any given terminal at this
time. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms then
increase again across the south tomorrow morning, with light
rain currently anticipated at KJMS. These chances will become
more widespread beyond the end of the 18Z TAF period, mainly
through Friday afternoon and early evening. Winds are
anticipated to remain light, though where showers and
thunderstorms do develop gusty and erratic winds will be
possible.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Adam/Telken
DISCUSSION...Adam
AVIATION...Telken