Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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604 FXUS63 KBIS 020539 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1239 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers may linger along the International border through the night. - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible Wednesday, mainly in the southwest. - The chance for showers and thunderstorms on Independence Day is 60 to 80 percent across all of western and central North Dakota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Minimal changes were made to the forecast for this update. Precipitation has exited our area for the most part, with a few radar returns lingering in the far northeast in Rolette County. Some showers have begun to form in southern Saskatchewan on the back side of this low, which may wrap around into our northwest. As a result, we`ve kept the PoPs building in across the north in the next few hours. Otherwise the forecast remains on track. .UPDATE... Issued at 943 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to exit eastern portions of central ND. Threat of severe weather has ended. Most activity should move out of the area by late evening. Showers and a possible thundershower could linger along the International Border through the overnight hours. Updated pops and sky cover based on latest radar and satellite. .UPDATE... Issued at 733 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 We have cancelled the severe thunderstorms watch for a good portion of south central ND. Will leave it going, at least for a while over Emmons county and into the James River Valley. However the severe threat looks to continue to diminish. Will monitor. .UPDATE... Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Thunderstorms have exited the Bismarck Mandan metro area. However, the 00Z sounding indicates little to no CIN behind the convection. Therefore, until the secondary boundary over western Morton and Grant counties, there remains at least a small severe threat. Will hold on to the watch west of the river for a while. For areas to the east, including the James River Valley, the greatest threat could be very heavy rain. Fortunately so far this evening, with a strong shortwave, the convection has progressed quickly to the east. Which is good given the very high PWATS over the area this evening. The convection is moving into a more capped environment so the threat for severe storms may diminish as the convection moves east. Will continue to monitor. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 314 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 Cold front is still expected to bring showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are still expected. Main threats will be hail up to ping pong ball size and wind up to 60 MPH. These threats could be high if storm mode takes on more discrete characteristics. For the latest breakdown on the environment see the mesoscale discussion. Timing wise look for these stronger storms to get going mid to late afternoon then pushing eastward through the evening. Some breezy southerly winds are possible through this evening ahead of this front, although winds have generally trended lower than previous forecast today. Most of the severe weather will exit or dissipate tonight. A broad trough lingering in the north could bring an isolated shower or perhaps thunderstorm in these areas tonight, with a low threat for severe weather. Low temperatures tonight will generally be in the 50s. This broad trough then looks to linger across the state on Tuesday, and perhaps bring a secondary cold front Tuesday afternoon through the evening. The result will be isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances through the day, with higher chances in the north. Instability and shear are limited for Tuesday, thus severe weather is not expected at this time. Look for temperatures in the 70s. Breezy northwest winds are also possible for Tuesday. The upper level winds are not particularly strong, and ECMWF EFI values are fairly low. Thus advisory level winds are not expected at this time. A quiet night with lows in the 50s are then expected for Tuesday night. Another broad trough still looks to push across the state on Wednesday. This could bring more scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms. Instability still looks somewhat limited although shear is increased on this day. Perhaps an isolated stronger storm is possible, especially in the south. SPC currently has a Marginal Risk in the southwest. High temperatures on Wednesday will warm slightly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. The broad trough could still develop a cutoff low across the region on Independence Day. This could still bring widespread showers and thunderstorms. Of note that some clusters have this low further south which would bring less rain to the are. This southern solution equates to about a 40% chance of occurring, with a 60% chance of the low maintaining a similar track that has been forecasted. Either solution would bring cooler temperatures to the area in the low to mid 70s. Clusters then show northwest flow through the Holiday weekend, although a building ridge in the west could attempt to push more eastward later in the weekend. Temperatures could warm to near normal as a result, and perhaps slightly warm if the ridge can build further inland. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be found each day, with the potential for waves to traverse through this northwest flow. CSU-MLP pops for severe weather are low for severe weather during this time period. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024 Generally VFR conditions are present across the area, with higher pressure building into the area from the west. Some MVFR ceilings linger around KJMS, but are expected to move east and out of the area within the next 1 to 2 hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return across the north and west during the day today, with the greatest chances near KMOT and KXWA. Gusty northwesterly winds are also expected during the day today, with sustained speeds near 20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. Winds will decrease after 00z, along with chances for precipitation. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Besson DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Besson