940
FXUS61 KBGM 141055
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
655 AM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions will continue today, although an isolated
shower or thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon.
Temperatures will become increasingly warmer and more humid
through Tuesday, followed by cooler conditions for the middle
and end of the week. There will also be a greater chance for
showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, especially each
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
655 AM Update:

Flow will shift to more southwesterly today, which will advect
in a warmer airmass. Skies will generally be mostly sunny with
some scattered cumulus around. Cannot rule out an isolated
afternoon shower or thunderstorm, mainly across Northeast PA,
but the large majority of the area will remain dry all day.
Highs are expected to be in the mid 80s to near 90. Dew points
will be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, it will not be as humid as
Monday and Tuesday will be.

Tonight, a shortwave will move through the area, which will
result in scattered showers, especially across Central NY.
Enough elevated instability may be in place for a few isolated
thunderstorms as well. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be
present with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Heat and humidity builds on Monday, although this comes with
quite a bit of uncertainty. A shortwave riding along quasi-zonal
flow will allow for afternoon showers and thunderstorms to
develop. This will have the potential to limit daytime heating
and keep temperatures several degrees cooler than it would be
otherwise. Right now, forecasting highs to be in the mid 80s to
lower 90s. With dew points rising into the upper 60s to lower
70s, it will also be rather humid. A few locations in the
valleys and urban areas will have the potential to have heat
indices approach the mid 90s. That being said, after
coordinating with our surrounding offices, opted to not issue
any Heat Advisories at this time, largely due to the strong
possibility that most areas do not reach criteria on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
423 AM update...

Zonal flow aloft will continue through Tuesday before the
pattern finally begins amplifying in response to a trough
digging in north of Lake Superior Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Monday evening,
mainly over eastern and southern portions of the CWA, before
shifting out of the area before midnight. A stray shower could
graze areas north of the Thruway before dawn Tuesday.

Increasing W to WSW flow on Tuesday will result in another day
of hot and humid conditions, possibly pushing Heat Advisory
criteria in some lower-elevation areas in south-central NY.
Much will depend on timing of showers and thunderstorms, which
are expected to develop again, especially during the afternoon.
The increasing flow aloft will bring the potential for severe
thunderstorms.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will swing well to our
north on Wednesday, but will drag a shortwave trough through the
area, keeping showers and thunderstorms in the region through
the day, but also cooling temperatures into the 80s for most
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
423 AM update...

High pressure will build into the area on Thursday, with fair
weather and more comfortable temperatures and humidity expected,
as highs look to drop into the middle to upper-70s. The spell of
fair weather looks to persist into the weekend as upper level
ridging builds in along the east coast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Valley fog/mist at KELM will dissipate by 13Z, with VFR
conditions expected after that. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at least through the next 24 hours (at least
through 12Z Monday). There is a chance for a few showers or
possibly a thunderstorm at any Central NY terminal tonight, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this
time.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may bring occasional restrictions, especially each afternoon;
otherwise mainly VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG
SHORT TERM...MPH
LONG TERM...MPH
AVIATION...BJG