917
FXUS61 KBGM 070725
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
325 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure over the region today will give way to our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday ahead of a cold
front. This front then looks to stall out leading to additional
chances of showers and thunderstorms for most of next week with
the remnants of Beryl tracking northeastward as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Any valley fog should quickly burn off after sunrise. High pressure
will be in place over the region today. This will result in a sunny
and warm day. This high pressure system also has brought in an
airmass with a little less humidity which is welcome. With plenty of
sun highs should get well into the 80`s today.


Clear skies and light winds should lead to favorable conditions for
radiational cooling and temperatures falling off into the low
and mid 60`s tonight. Given recent moisture and the light winds,
patchy valley fog is once again likely around sunrise Monday.

On Monday, high pressure shifts slowly east of the region allowing
for a weak southerly return flow. As a result, temperatures and
humidity look to increase a touch. Modeled soundings do show an
inverted V look Monday afternoon. With that in mind, mixed in the
RGEM model to bring dewpoints down slightly from the previous
forecast. Heat index values look slightly lower as well with a few
locations reaching 95. Confidence is not high enough for any heat
headline at this time for Monday afternoon. A stray shower or
thunderstorm can not be ruled out in NE PA as well, but lift looks
insufficient for anything more than that.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...

High pressure overhead will promote dry conditions Monday and a
good deal of sunshine, but it will be a hot, humid day.
Dewpoints Monday will be anywhere from the mid 60s to around 70
degrees. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s
to the low 90s, and heat index values can peak in the mid and
upper 90s in some valley locations. This day will be monitored
for potential heat advisories.

Clouds will start to increase Monday night as a cold front
begins to slowly approach from the west and it will be warm and
muggy. There could be enough moisture in place for a stray
shower later at night. Lows will range from the mid 60s to near
70 degrees.

The cold front is expected to continue to push east gradually
Tuesday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms,
especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Tuesday looks
to remain very warm and humid ahead of the front with highs from
the mid 80s to near 90 degrees, but this will also depend on
how quickly convection gets going this day and cloud cover.
There is the potential for heat index values this day to be in
the low to mid 90s, while the Wyoming Valley may see values
nearing 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
255 PM Update...

Mid to late week is where uncertainty in the forecast
increases. A strong Bermuda high is expected to slow down the
eastward progress of the cold front and perhaps even stall it
out all together not too far away from the CWA Wednesday into
Thursday if the high can shift far enough westward like the 12Z
GFS depicts and most of the ensembles. This would be the
catalyst for additional showers and thunderstorms, but the wild
card is if what remains of Beryl could make it into the region.
This possible enhancement of tropical moisture can lead to the
potential of heavy rainfall and localized flooding come
Thursday, especially in urban areas and small creeks/streams.
Current guidance has Beryl moving into the southern Plains/lower
Mississippi River Valley Tuesday-Tuesday night and meeting up
with the tail end of the cold front which would help draw it
northeastward, but the question becomes where is the front and
does the tropical moisture move into the Ohio Valley and Great
Lakes or farther east toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Unsettled conditions look to persist into Friday and Saturday
with additional shower and thunderstorm chances. High
temperatures mid to late week look to generally be from the
upper 70s to the mid 80s, but convection and the potential for
heavy rainfall will make temperatures tricky. Lows are expected
to be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR throughout the TAF period. Still looks like we are a
few hours away from any fog formation at KELM, continued the
mention with a TEMPO for now. Light winds and VFR through
Monday otherwise.

Outlook...

Tuesday Through Friday...Showers and thunderstorms possible,
with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...MWG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MWG