135
FXUS61 KBGM 061240
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
840 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms have moved east with a drier air mass
moving in. Temperatures will still be warm through the weekend
but it will feel less muggy with the lower humidity, especially
on Sunday. Heat continues into next week with chances for rain
and thunderstorms returning by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...

835 AM Update...

The valley fog is quickly dissipating now, with some lingering
convective debris clouds over the Catskills. The rain has exited
the area and it should remain dry until at least 2-3 PM.

Otherwise, it is mostly sunny across the region this morning.
An additional area of scattered mid level clouds will move into
the area this afternoon in association with a weak shortwave.
Took a blend of the HRRR and 06z 3km NAM to update, and make
minor tweaks to PoPs this afternoon and evening. Depending on
how much mid level dry air moves into the area, there still
appears to be a chance for isolated t`storms to develop over
portions of CNY between about 3 PM to 9 PM today; most of the
activity stays just north of the Southern Tier, but can`t rule
out a stray shower/storm even here.

Overall, the forecast remains well on track with not many
changes needed at this time.


630 AM Update...

Storms have moved off to the east with less shower activity
behind it so chances of precipitation were greatly reduced
through the rest of the morning. It is still looking like there
will be enough instability this afternoon for a few isolated to
scattered thunderstorms across the Finger Lakes into CNY.

315 AM Update...

Showers and thunderstorms have developed across east central PA
early this morning and will be moving into the Wyoming Valley
through sunrise. Mesoanalysis shows a decent amount of most
unstable CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) extending from the Chesapeake Bay
up into PA helping to fuel these storms. 0-6 km shear with
these storms is only around 20 to 25 knots though given the high
CAPE severe storms are possible with strong winds and hail.
Forecast soundings dont show too much cin and given the
temperature at AVP was 77 degrees at 1 am it seems reasonable
that some of the winds could punch through to the surface with
any stronger downburst. So far despite tall cloud tops, storms
have struggled to get any deep cores in order to get enough
precipitation loading to get a microburst or downburst.
Precipitable water values are currently over 1.5 inches with
deep warm cloud depths so heavy rainfall rates are likely with
any storm. Right now the storms are moving at a good pace and
there has not been any training so far as of 3 am.

The surface trough responsible for triggering these showers and
thunderstorms will be moving east this morning with dry air
advecting in. The dry air can be seen on water vapor imagery in
central PA and as that moves in, day time heating will be able
to mix some of it down with dew points falling this afternoon.
Soil moisture will likely be fairly high with the rainfall this
morning so areas that see more than a quarter inch of rain may
take more time to dry out. The Finger Lakes into CNY will have a
500 mb shortwave pass through this afternoon coupled with a 250
mb jet streak with the HREF showing between 400 and 900 J/kg of
surface based CAPE developing so a few isolated thunderstorms
are likely. The lack of good instability will limit the severe
potential with the afternoon storms but given the high shear,
higher lifted condensation levels, and steep low level lapse
rates, a small potential exist for severe wind gusts if any
storm can get a deep enough core. The dry air in the mid levels
and skinny cape depicted in forecast soundings will really lead
to dry air entrainment with the storms so many will struggle to
develop much above 15,000 to 20,000 feet.

Once the shortwave is through this afternoon, ridging builds
back in with flow aloft weakening and the 250 mb jet retreating
northward. Dry air in the mid levels remains with surface high
pressure building in so temperatures remain warm but mixing will
help drop dew points into the mid to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure starts to build into the region Saturday night
shifting any chance of showers and thunderstorms east of the region.
With the high pressure system overhead Sunday looks quiet as well.
However, heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of
the high. Enough moisture looks to be in place to where a shower or
thunderstorm can not be ruled out Monday afternoon or night.

Temperatures overall Sunday look slightly cooler ranging from the
60`s to the 80`s. However, temperatures look to warm a few degrees
Monday with slightly higher humidity as well. Many valley locations
have the potential to hit 90 degrees, coupled with the humidity
afternoon heat index values of 95-100 are possible Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Another cold front looks to push toward the region for our next
chance of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Wednesday.
Temperatures should trend a bit cooler as well. PW values are still
forecasted to surge to around 2 inches later Tuesday, introducing a
localized small stream and urban flood concern from locally heavy
downpours.

A more concerning pattern sets up for the middle and back half of
the week. Upper level ridging off the east coast looks to slow the
movement of the front possibly even stalling out. The track of
Beryl has trended northeast enough to where current NHC
projections have it going into the Southern Plains early next
week. Ensemble guidance shows the potential for Beryl to track
further northeast along the previously mentioned cold front into
the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and the Mid Atlantic regions by
Thursday. This would enhance tropical moisture for heavy
rainfall and potential localized flooding if it tracks close
enough to the region. Any threats for gusty winds or isolated
tornadoes are also dependent on the track, which is still
highly uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms have left the area already so thunder
and showers were removed from the TAFs. Fog will cause some
restrictions through about 13Z at ELM. Dry air mixes in this
afternoon with cigs scattering out by 15Z. A couple of
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon around SYR, ITH, and
RME but odds are low a terminal will be impacted.

Tonight, high pressure and clear skies lead to fog developing
again mainly at ELM.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible,
with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...AJG