008
FXUS61 KBGM 162346
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
746 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid conditions today with another round of
thunderstorms. A trailing cold front will move through the area
on Wednesday, bringing cooler temperatures but lingering shower
and thunderstorm chances. Fair weather and cooler temperatures
are expected Thursday and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
740 PM update...
Precipitation chances were lowered below slight chance this
update as the thunderstorms have exited the region and the
thunderstorms near Niagara Falls should dissipate after sunset.
Small adjustments were made to overnight lows as well with the
skies being less cloudy.

139 PM update...
Convection continues to develop across the western Finger Lakes
and a broad area of w-central NY out ahead of an approaching
MCV that is rotating eastward across western NY. A layer of
strong 500mb winds (40-50 kts) associated with low-amplitude
short wave are swinging through the region and combining with
backed southerly surface winds (10-20 kts) to produce a
confined area of strong deep layer shear. This strong forcing is
working in tandem with a passing mesoscale convective vortex and
a rapidly destabilizing environment to produce very favorable
conditions for significant convective growth that will occur
over the next several hours and progress to the east. These
storms are starting out relatively discrete, but should
eventually evolve into a more linear mode after a couple hours
and the upper short wave catches up from the west.

A Severe Thunderstorms Watch is in effect until 6 PM this
evening with the main threat being damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. Cannot rule out hail as well.

The storms are expected to move rapidly to the east early this
evening and leave in their wake lingering scattered clouds and a
few light rain showers and. Winds will become more westerly and
temperatures will drop into the 60s with a brief period of much
lower humidity. The atmosphere recharges tomorrow morning with
temperatures quickly rising back into the 80s with dew points
into the lower 70s.

A trailing cold front over Lake Erie will push eastward and be
the focus of attention for more convective development during
the first half of the day Wednesday. Showers and storms are
expected to blossom over the central part of NY and spread to
the east/southeast through the late morning and early afternoon
hours. Some of these storms could becomes strong to
severe...mainly east and south east of a line from Corning to
Utica. The front moves quickly to the east as drier and cooler
air arrives from the west/nw.

Temperatures will warm into the 80s in NY and into the upper 80s
in ne PA Wed, but then cool into the 60s with dew points in the
50s by Wed night. Some patchy valley fog is possible.


1010 AM update...
We continue to track the remnants of a Midwest MCS with an
embedded MCV across southern Ontario this morning which is
expected to be the focal point for strong forcing that will
interact with a very unstable air mass and produce strong and
severe thunderstorms across a good portion of central NY this
afternoon. The SPC has upgraded the Day 1 Convective Outlook and
placed an Enhanced area of risk from the northern Finger Lakes
east to the western Mohawk Valley, and farther east into
southern VT. The main threat will be damaging straight-line
winds and a couple embedded tornadoes as well. Timing is still
questionable, but the most favorable start time looks to be as
early as 12-1 PM in the northern Finger Lakes, and potentially
and ending time as late as 8 PM near Utica and Cooperstown.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
250 PM Update...

Thursday looks to be a largely dry day across the area with a
blend of sun and some clouds as an upper trough gradually moves
away to the east and high pressure builds in from the west at
the surface. With winds out of the west-northwest and dewpoints
mainly in the 50s, it will be the start of a pleasant stretch of
weather. Highs Thursday are expected to be in the mid and upper
70s, with lower 80s possible in the Wyoming Valley. Clear skies
Thursday night combined with light winds will lead to good
radiational cooling with overnight lows in the 50s. Some of the
higher elevations can drop back into the lower 50s.

High pressure will remain in control through Friday night and
with zonal flow aloft, temperatures and dewpoints are expected
to remain at comfortable levels. Highs Friday range from the mid
70s to the low 80s, and overnight lows again fall back into the
50s for most.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
250 PM Update...

Dry conditions are expected to continue into Saturday before a
slight chance of showers returns for the latter half of the
weekend. A front dropping south out of Canada will approach
later Saturday night into Sunday, but will be running into dry
air in place over the region, so any showers over CNY look to be
very isolated in nature. There is also an influx of moisture
that tries to push in from the south associated with a stalled
frontal boundary draped across portions of the mid-Atlantic and
Southeast. This leads to a slight uptick in moisture at the low
levels over NE PA, but soundings remain pretty dry above 700mb.
As a result, shower activity over NE PA also looks very
isolated.

With the stalled boundary remaining to the south and weak
pertibations moving along it, a small chance of showers may
continue into Monday before a more defined area of low pressure
tries to bring a better chance of some showers and thunderstorms
to the region Tuesday into Wednesday.

Highs during this time are expected to be in the 70s and 80s
with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mostly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at all
terminals. Fog was removed at ELM as drier air has been able to
make its way in this afternoon. Tomorrow a threat of
thunderstorms return, mainly south of I-90 so SYR and RME did
not get any prob30 groups added. All other terminals look to
have a better chance at seeing a line of thunderstorms move
through in the afternoon but timing is uncertain still.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPH
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJT/MPH
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...AJG