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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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832 FXUS61 KBGM 171727 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 127 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A trailing cold front will move through the area today, bringing one last round of showers and thunderstorms to the area. A few storms may again become severe, with damaging wind gusts. An extended period of fair weather looks settle in for Thursday and into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 1 PM Update... Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for portions of the region. Cloud cover has limited instability across much of Central NY and into the Southern Tier, however portions of NE PA and Delaware and Sullivan Counties have been cloud-free this morning. SPC mesoanalysis shows CAPE values of 1500 - 2000 J/kg in this region and also stronger DCAPE values across the Catskills and eastern Poconos. Expecting storms to grow in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours before pushing out of our region late this afternoon and this evening. 930 AM Update... Forecast remaining mostly on-track. Extensive cloud cover across the northwestern half of the CWA this morning and increased cloud cover with this update based on latest METSAT. These clouds will limit instability and lower the risk for severe storms later this afternoon. Best chance for severe weather today will be across the NE PA and into the southern Catskills in Sullivan County NY. 355 AM Update... A deep upper level trough over central Ontario will move slowly eastward today, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft across the northeastern states. A weak shortwave trough embedded in the southwesterly flow will drift through the area this afternoon, as a cold front currently over the eastern Great Lakes heads east. This will trigger widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, particularly over eastern parts of the CWA where moisture and instability ahead of the front will linger into the afternoon hours. The risk of severe weather will be most pronounced near and SE of the I-88 corridor, where bulk shear will be strongest (40 knots) and where the timing of the cold front passage will maximize diurnal heating, building stronger instability. Wind shear in the lowest levels will be weaker than yesterday, and the primary threat from severe thunderstorms looks to be isolated damaging wind gusts from the more typical multi-cell clusters/bowing segments, and perhaps a little less organized/mature compared to what we`ve experienced the last couple of days. Precip will push east of the area late tonight, with some patchy valley fog possible in the most sheltered valleys. Fair weather is expected through Thursday with temperatures topping out in 70s to lower-80s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 315 AM Update... High pressure will be in control for the short term period. Northwesterly flow and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 50s Thursday night. Then to finish out the work week, there will be plenty of sunshine for all. Keeping the previous forecast over the slightly cooler new guidance, highs on Friday will be in the mid 70s to low 80s. Friday night will be slightly warmer that the previous night as temperatures will fall back into the 50s, though a couple valley locations may hold onto the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 315 AM Update... High pressure will remain over the Northeast for most of the weekend. Quiet conditions continue into Saturday, though models continue to pull in showers from the south during the daytime hours. However, based on model soundings, moisture looks to be lacking, especially close to the surface. This forecast keeps conditions dry but if something were to develop, sprinkles/drizzle would be expected. Shower chances look slightly better Sunday as a weak front drops south from Canada. Models do show more moisture across CNY, so a slight chance for showers remains in the forecast. These showers would be light as well, so a washout is not expected for the second half of the weekend. Conditions begin to change early next week as a stationary front that was located over the Mid-Atlantic over the weekend eventually moves north. Weak waves north of this front may support some stray showers and thunderstorms late Monday and into the overnight hours. Chances for showers and storms increase Tuesdsay as the front drifts even further northward and a weak low moves east along the boundary. Temperatures this period will max out in the upper 70s and 80s. Overnight temps will fall into the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms expected today, generally south of SYR. The best coverage/chances for thunderstorms will be ELM, BGM and AVP. Showers and storms come to an end this evening as cold front exit the area. Some patchy valley fog is possible again tonight, but overall confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time as cloud cover is likely to persist behind the cold front. Outlook... Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPH NEAR TERM...MPK/MPH SHORT TERM...BTL/DK LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...MPK/MPH