083
FXUS61 KBGM 190655
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
255 AM EDT Fri Jul 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in control today and much of the weekend.
Temperatures trend warmer through early next week. Occasional
showers and isolated storms will be possible this weekend. More
widespread showers return next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
255 AM Update...

Fog is just now beginning to develop, a bit later than yesterday
morning. Patchy fog is expected to spread through the valleys early
this morning and then lift out with the arrival of sunshine. High
pressure will remain over the region through the near term period,
resulting in mostly quiet conditions. Skies will be partly to mostly
sunny as northwest flow will help support fair weather cumulus
clouds this afternoon. Temperatures will max out in the mid 70s to
low 80s. Overnight, temps fall into the 50s and low 60s. Fog will be
possible, but similar to this morning, it will likely be slower to
develop with drier conditions near the surface.

Saturday will start out dry and remain that way for most, but some
will see a passing shower. A shortwave drifts into the region from
the south and will kick off scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across much of NEPA and the Catskills. There is some
uncertainty how far north showers will make it, but the Southern
Tier may also see a shower or two. Elevated instability will be weak
and will be accompanied by fairly weak shear, so any storms that do
develop should be non-severe. West-southwest flow will help advect
in warmer air as temps climb into the upper 70s and low 80s. With
cloudy skies and scattered showers over NEPA and Catskills,
temperatures were bumped down a few degrees below guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM Update

Quiet and seasonable weather expected Saturday night into Sunday.
However, a weak front is progged to drop down from the north into
Central NY during the day on Sunday. Right now, most of the guidance
has this feature with very limited moisture or instability. With
that said, after mainly clear skies Saturday night there should be a
few more clouds around for CNY on Sunday; can`t rule out an isolated
shower or t`storm too. Lows are in the mid-50s to low 60s with highs
in the 80s Sunday afternoon.

This weak front washes out over the area Sunday night, with another
mainly clear and seasonable night expected. Patchy valley fog will
be a good possibility. Lows are in the mid-50s to low 60s again.

Monday into Monday night features a weak steering flow environment,
with moisture and instability gradually increase as a shortwave
approaches from the Mid-Atlantic. This feature may be enough to
initiate a few showers and/or T`storms in the afternoon...mainly
across NE PA. Otherwise, Monday will be partly sunny and a bit warmer
with highs in the 80s to near 90 across the Wyoming Valley region.
Monday night is partly cloudy, with still a chance for a shower or
t`storm around. Overnight lows gradually increase, with low to mid-
60s in the forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
230 AM Update

This period will feature a more active, wetter and more humid
weather pattern. A deep southwesterly flow of moisture and
instability will set up over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Tuesday
through Thursday as an upper level trough slowly drifts east from
the Central Great Lakes. PWATs increase between 1.6 to 2.0 inches
during this period, and MLCAPE looks to be between 600-1200 J/kg each
afternoon. Deep layer shear is progged to be between 25-35 kts each
day as well as the flow increases between the deepening upper level
low/trough and the offshore Bermuda high. Current indications are
that the upper level trough/low will remain slightly positively
tilted as it trudges east-southeast through the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. The 00z GFS is further north and faster with this
trough, compared to the ECMWF. Some of the thunderstorms could
become more organized, with heavy downpours possible especially
heading into mid-week as WPC has a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall on day 5 (8 AM Tuesday - 8 AM Wednesday). This will be
something to monitor.

Overall, for sensible weather...each day Tuesday through Thursday
will feature partly sunny and humid conditions with afternoon & evening
showers & t`storms likely. Highs range from the upper 70s to
mid-80s, with muggy overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. By
the end of the period the timing and position of the upper level
trough is more uncertain on Friday. At least some of the
ensemble guidance suggest it will pull east, with a drier air
mass arriving. Stuck close to the NBM, which still lingers at
least a chance for a few showers into Friday...with steady high
temperatures between 80- 85 in most locations.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With light winds and clear skies, conditions are favorable for
fog to develop. however, it has been much slower to develop than
last night. Because of this, there remains uncertainty with
timing and restrictions. Given that BGM did not see fog 18 to 24
hours ago, that tempo was removed. With guidance still
targeting ELM, ITH, and RME, those tempos remain with
restrictions possible.

By 12z, any fog that does develop will clear up and VFR
conditions are expected through the rest of the period. Winds
will be light throughout this TAF period as well.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Mainly VFR; Low chance for showers at
AVP and BGM Saturday afternoon.

Tuesday...Rain chances return with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BTL
NEAR TERM...BTL
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL