Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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335 FXUS61 KBGM 050547 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 147 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Very warm and humid conditions last into Friday with continued risk for more thunderstorms. Saturday is now looking mainly dry, but still very warm. Sunday and Monday will be dry and mostly sunny, with continued hot temperatures. A front approaches bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region next Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 915 PM Update... Forecast grids in decent shape with just minor adjustments to timing of next rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms. CAMS guidance in rather poor agreement leading to low confidence in forecast, but they do show plenty of potential for showers/t-storms overnight and then again at times on Friday across both CNY and NEPA. Will attempt some timing for the overnight, but generally expecting scattered coverage. A few adjustments were also made to Friday`s forecast which should feature a lull in any lingering overnight convection before atmosphere recovers in the afternoon as noted below. 340 PM Update A weak boundary resides over the Twin Tiers at this time, aiding in some minor surface convergence. Surface dew points and low level moisture are higher across NE PA, mainly in the lower 70s...with mid-60s to upper 60s further north across the rest of Central NY. Therefore, instability is higher over NE PA with MLCAPE rising between 500-1000 J/Kg currently. Along this boundary some scattered showers and t`storms have developed; these are not moving much and should tend to remain in this general area while drifting southeast into the evening hours. It will be very warm and humid into the evening hours, with temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80 around sunset. Difference in the CAMs for late evening and tonight made for a lower than usual confidence forecast. The HRRR would suggest much more numerous shower and t`storm activity overnight...meanwhile the 3km NAM is mainly dry overnight. With the differences and uncertainty decided to stick with slight chance PoPs for the overnight period. Will have to monitor upstream convective activity to see how well it progresses east-northeast late this evening/overnight. Friday will be another very warm and humid day, with dew points pushing into the upper 60s to mid-70s...with the highest surface moisture across NE PA. High temperatures reach the mid-80s to around 90...this will produce peak heat indices well into the 90s across our valley locations. It will be very close to heat advisory criteria in some of the favored urban valley location., but confidence wasn`t quite high enough as it will depend on rain chances/timing and cloud cover. By afternoon, instability increases between 1000-2000 J/Kg and deep layer shear increases between 30-40 kts. SPC has the western half of our forecast area under a Marginal risk for severe storms, with the main threat being isolated damaging winds. WPC is also indicating a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall over the entire region, as PWATS remain elevated above 1.6 inches, and warm cloud layer depth is up to 13k ft agl. CAMs suggest a possible remnant MCS/MCV moving into the area which will initial more convection...exactly when and where this may track remains somewhat uncertain though at this time. A front moves in from the west Friday evening and into the overnight period. This will bring a period of rain and thunderstorms to the region once again. Additional locally heavy rainfall is possible with this convective activity. Localized rainfall totals of 1-2"+ are possible during this time. With the cloud, showers and a warm south wind...it will be very muggy with lows only in the upper 60s to mid-70s out there. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A surface low tracks north of our region on Saturday with a cold front dragging through NY & PA. Front is expected to move through early Saturday morning with model guidance hinting at lower precip chances for most of Saturday. A few isolated showers are still possible with lingering moisture behind the front. Otherwise temperatures are expected to be quite warm with southerly flow still in place. Highs will climb into the low to high 80s by afternoon with lows gradually falling into the low to mid 60s overnight. High pressure builds over the midwest expanding into our region on Sunday resulting in dry conditions. Mostly sunny skies will dominate with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Clear skies will continue into the overnight hours with calm winds allowing for a possible radiational cooling setup. Lows are forecasted to range in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure centers over our region Monday with a pleasant start to the week. Warm and quiet conditions will persist for one more day, with heat and humidity starting to increase on the backside of the high. By Tuesday and Wednesday our region rests on the edge of an upper level ridge with southwest flow and moisture advection. With heat and humidity in place, passing shortwaves should provide enough lift to set off showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance diverges towards the end of the period due to timing differences. Went with NBM pops showing a chance of showers as another disturbance moves through the region. Temperatures during this period are expected to be warm with increasing humidity as the week progresses. Highs will range in the low to upper 80s with lows in the 60s at night. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR will be the predominant category at terminals over the next 24 hours. While there is fairly widespread cloud cover early this morning, small breaks in the clouds have resulted in quick fog development. With some clearing headed towards ELM, decided to put in some IFR vis for a few hours prior to sunrise. BGM, ITH, and even AVP may see some brief vis restrictions with patchy fog from rain today. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms in western PA will be making its way east through the morning with AVP having a chance at seeing a few thunderstorms after 15Z. Rain should make its way as far north at BGM. The rest of the day after 18Z is uncertain as there will be spotty showers and thunderstorms with a low probability of an airport being impacted. Given the low chance, no showers or thunderstorms were added to the TAFs but if there is a direct impact IFR vis is possible due to heavy rain. Outlook... Friday night through Saturday Night...More unsettled pattern with chances of showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...JAB/MJM SHORT TERM...ES LONG TERM...ES AVIATION...AJG/JAB