Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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092 FXUS61 KBGM 060739 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 339 AM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms this morning will move east by the early afternoon with a drier air mass moving in later today. Temperatures will still be warm through the weekend but it will feel less muggy with the lower humidity. Heat continues into next week with chances of rain returning by mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... 315 AM Update... Showers and thunderstorms have developed across east central PA early this morning and will be moving into the Wyoming Valley through sunrise. Mesoanalysis shows a decent amount of most unstable CAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) extending from the Chesapeake Bay up into PA helping to fuel these storms. 0-6 km shear with these storms is only around 20 to 25 knots though given the high CAPE severe storms are possible with strong winds and hail. Forecast soundings dont show too much cin and given the temperature at AVP was 77 degrees at 1 am it seems reasonable that some of the winds could punch through to the surface with any stronger downburst. So far despite tall cloud tops, storms have struggled to get any deep cores in order to get enough precipitation loading to get a microburst or downburst. Precipitable water values are currently over 1.5 inches with deep warm cloud depths so heavy rainfall rates are likely with any storm. Right now the storms are moving at a good pace and there has not been any training so far as of 3 am. The surface trough responsible for triggering these showers and thunderstorms will be moving east this morning with dry air advecting in. The dry air can be seen on water vapor imagery in central PA and as that moves in, day time heating will be able to mix some of it down with dew points falling this afternoon. Soil moisture will likely be fairly high with the rainfall this morning so areas that see more than a quarter inch of rain may take more time to dry out. The Finger Lakes into CNY will have a 500 mb shortwave pass through this afternoon coupled with a 250 mb jet streak with the HREF showing between 400 and 900 J/kg of surface based CAPE developing so a few isolated thunderstorms are likely. The lack of good instability will limit the severe potential with the afternoon storms but given the high shear, higher lifted condensation levels, and steep low level lapse rates, a small potential exist for severe wind gusts if any storm can get a deep enough core. The dry air in the mid levels and skinny cape depicted in forecast soundings will really lead to dry air entrainment with the storms so many will struggle to develop much above 15,000 to 20,000 feet. Once the shortwave is through this afternoon, ridging builds back in with flow aloft weakening and the 250 mb jet retreating northward. Dry air in the mid levels remains with surface high pressure building in so temperatures remain warm but mixing will help drop dew points into the mid to low 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure starts to build into the region Saturday night shifting any chance of showers and thunderstorms east of the region. With the high pressure system overhead Sunday looks quiet as well. However, heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of the high. Enough moisture looks to be in place to where a shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out Monday afternoon or night. Temperatures overall Sunday look slightly cooler ranging from the 60`s to the 80`s. However, temperatures look to warm a few degrees Monday with slightly higher humidity as well. Many valley locations have the potential to hit 90 degrees, coupled with the humidity afternoon heat index values of 95-100 are possible Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Another cold front looks to push toward the region for our next chance of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures should trend a bit cooler as well. PW values are still forecasted to surge to around 2 inches later Tuesday, introducing a localized small stream and urban flood concern from locally heavy downpours. A more concerning pattern sets up for the middle and back half of the week. Upper level ridging off the east coast looks to slow the movement of the front possibly even stalling out. The track of Beryl has trended northeast enough to where current NHC projections have it going into the Southern Plains early next week. Ensemble guidance shows the potential for Beryl to track further northeast along the previously mentioned cold front into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and the Mid Atlantic regions by Thursday. This would enhance tropical moisture for heavy rainfall and potential localized flooding if it tracks close enough to the region. Any threats for gusty winds or isolated tornadoes are also dependent on the track, which is still highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to form near AVP so the timing of thunderstorms was moved up. The showers and thunderstorms have so far stayed NW of SYR and RME and that trend looks to continue so IFR was taken out of the TAFs as chances are now lower through 12Z. ELM, ITH, and BGM should be clipped by the north edge of the thunderstorms so mainly rain showers are expected with lightning staying south this morning. Drier air moves in behind this mornings round of showers and thunderstorms with cigs scattering out and VFR conditions returning shortly after 12Z for all terminals. VFR conditions will then persist into tonight with only a slim chance at a shower or thunderstorm in the vicinity of ITH, SYR, and RME this afternoon. Outlook... Saturday Night...Isolated thunderstorms, then areas of fog overnight with associated restrictions. Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday and Wednesday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG NEAR TERM...AJG SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...AJG/MPK