Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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883 FXUS61 KBGM 061905 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 305 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and still somewhat humid this evening, with some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in Central NY. Mostly clear and seasonably mild overnight with valley fog as a surface high pressure system moves overhead. Dry, warm and sunny weather prevails on Sunday with slightly lower humidity levels. Monday looks to be the hottest day of the week before it turns more unsettled with shower and thunderstorm chances each day for mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Update GOES East visible satellite loop shows scattered to broken (30-60%) cumulus cloud cover out there this afternoon. There is a lake breeze convergence boundary moving into north-central NY which looks to propagate east into this evening, acting as a catalyst for isolated to sct`d showers/t`storms over portions of Central NY. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s currently, with sfc dew points dropping back a touch, now between 64-70F, which is up to 7 degrees lower than 24 hours ago (based on 230 PM NY mesonet). MLCAPE is 400-800 J/Kg currently with LIs between -1 and -4 on the SPC mesoanalysis. Effective layer shear is impressive at 40-55 kts currently, but areal average soundings from the 17z HRRR are showing dry air in the 750-550mb layer which is inhibiting any showers that reach this level so far. The HRRR keeps this dry layer, and a weak thermal cap around 575mb in place into the late afternoon hours...and yet it does allow for a few thunderstorms to develop, mainly along the remnant lake air mass boundary, which is progressing east across our western/central CWA at this time. Overall, sounding data shows most parameters unfavorable for severe storms this afternoon...again owing to just too much dry air, and weak mid/upper level lapse rates. Equilibrium levels are low, especially for the mixed layer parcels, only reaching 20k ft agl...and 25k ft agl for surface based parcels. Will continue to monitor, but for now left mainly slight chance to low end chance PoPs in the forecast across Central NY for the late afternoon & early evening. Did include a small area of higher PoPs where the storms are likely to roll through between now and 6 PM, along and north of I-90 from near Syracuse to Rome. Any lingering showers and storms should dissipate around or shortly after sunset with skies becoming mostly clear overnight. Cross over temperatures for valley fog formation are lower, in the low to mid- 60s over the region...but overnight lows will drip down into the upper 50s to mid-60s. Therefore, with light winds and high pressure in place did include patchy/areas of fog for the favored river valley locations into early Sunday morning. Quiet and warm weather on Sunday under high pressure. Valley fog burns off and dissipates by 9 AM. Dew points will be lower between 60-65 in the afternoon, so it will not feel as humid out there. Highs reach into the 80s areawide under mostly sunny skies. Much of the same for Sunday night, with high pressure remaining overhead. Clear skies, light winds and seasonable overnight lows in the 60s will set the stage for more valley fog. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 255 PM Update... High pressure overhead will promote dry conditions Monday and a good deal of sunshine, but it will be a hot, humid day. Dewpoints Monday will be anywhere from the mid 60s to around 70 degrees. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 80s to the low 90s, and heat index values can peak in the mid and upper 90s in some valley locations. This day will be monitored for potential heat advisories. Clouds will start to increase Monday night as a cold front begins to slowly approach from the west and it will be warm and muggy. There could be enough moisture in place for a stray shower later at night. Lows will range from the mid 60s to near 70 degrees. The cold front is expected to continue to push east gradually Tuesday with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Tuesday looks to remain very warm and humid ahead of the front with highs from the mid 80s to near 90 degrees, but this will also depend on how quickly convection gets going this day and cloud cover. There is the potential for heat index values this day to be in the low to mid 90s, while the Wyoming Valley may see values nearing 100 degrees. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 255 PM Update... Mid to late week is where uncertainty in the forecast increases. A strong Bermuda high is expected to slow down the eastward progress of the cold front and perhaps even stall it out all together not too far away from the CWA Wednesday into Thursday if the high can shift far enough westward like the 12Z GFS depicts and most of the ensembles. This would be the catalyst for additional showers and thunderstorms, but the wild card is if what remains of Beryl could make it into the region. This possible enhancement of tropical moisture can lead to the potential of heavy rainfall and localized flooding come Thursday, especially in urban areas and small creeks/streams. Current guidance has Beryl moving into the southern Plains/lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday-Tuesday night and meeting up with the tail end of the cold front which would help draw it northeastward, but the question becomes where is the front and does the tropical moisture move into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes or farther east toward the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Unsettled conditions look to persist into Friday and Saturday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances. High temperatures mid to late week look to generally be from the upper 70s to the mid 80s, but convection and the potential for heavy rainfall will make temperatures tricky. Lows are expected to be in the 60s. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 200 PM Update Mainly VFR conditions persist across the region through the taf period. However, there is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two in vicinity of SYR and RME as a surface convergence boundary moves west to east. Therefore, included a PROB30 group at these two sites from 19-23z this afternoon/evening. For the other taf sites, it is very likely to remain dry, with chances for any showers or t`storms only at 10-20% through sunset. Tonight, high pressure and clear skies lead to fog developing again mainly at ELM as they are likely to drop below their cross over temperature during the predawn hours. Included a period of Below Alternate Minimum restrictions in fog for ELM between about 08-11z. The fog should lift and scatter out quickly by mid-morning...with a return to VFR conditions areawide for the rest of Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Afternoon and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday Through Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...DK LONG TERM...DK AVIATION...MJM