724
WTNT42 KNHC 080254
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number  38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 07 2024

Radar and satellite trends suggest Beryl is becoming better
organized tonight. Deep convection has increased near the center,
with new convective elements emerging around the northern and
southern portions of the circulation. Tail Doppler Radar data from
the NOAA aircraft suggest the radius of maximum wind has contracted
a bit, and the vortex has become more vertically aligned. However,
the eyewall is open to the west, where there is still some evidence
of dry air in the circulation. The intensity was raised to 60 kt
based on earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level
wind data (66 kt at 700 mb), and the most recent aircraft pass
through the northeast quadrant still supports the 60-kt intensity
for this advisory. The minimum pressure has continued to slowly
fall, with the latest dropsonde data supporting 986 mb.

The environmental and oceanic conditions remain quite favorable for
intensification while Beryl approaches the Texas coast overnight.
The recent structural changes noted above are expected to allow
Beryl to re-strengthen into a hurricane overnight, and the potential
for significant intensification leading up to landfall is still
indicated by some of the regional hurricane guidance, particularly
the HWRF and HMON. At this point, time is the greatest limiting
factor as the storm is less than 12 h from landfall. While the 12-h
forecast point shows a 65-kt hurricane inland over Texas, the peak
intensity is expected between now and the 12-h forecast point, and
is thus not explicitly shown in this forecast. After landfall, rapid
weakening is expected while the system moves farther inland.

The long-term motion of Beryl is north-northwestward at about 9 kt,
but recent radar and aircraft fixes have shown a motion just east of
due north. A northward motion overnight is expected to bring the
center of Beryl inland along the middle Texas coast roughly between
Matagorda Bay and Freeport early on Monday morning. The short-term
NHC track forecast is just slightly east of the previous one. After
landfall, Beryl is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough while transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Mesquite Bay to Sabine Pass, including
Matagorda Bay and Galveston Bay. Residents in those areas should
follow any advice given by local officials and follow evacuation
orders.

2. Beryl is forecast to bring damaging hurricane-force winds to
portions of the Texas coast early Monday. A Hurricane Warning is in
effect from Mesquite Bay to San Luis Pass.

3. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected tonight through
Monday night across portions of the middle and upper Texas Gulf
Coast and eastern Texas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is
also expected.

4. Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through
Monday across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning
flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before
venturing into the water.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 27.6N  95.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 29.2N  95.8W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
 24H  09/0000Z 31.5N  95.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  09/1200Z 33.7N  93.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  10/0000Z 36.0N  90.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  10/1200Z 38.4N  87.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 72H  11/0000Z 40.4N  84.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 96H  12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart