Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
559
FONT12 KNHC 071447
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 15 9(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
FORT POLK LA 34 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
LAKE CHARLES 34 2 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
CAMERON LA 34 6 25(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34)
JASPER TX 34 1 11(12) 5(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17)
KOUNTZE TX 34 2 25(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 2 20(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24)
GALVESTON TX 34 27 54(81) 1(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82)
GALVESTON TX 50 1 21(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23)
GALVESTON TX 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
HOUSTON TX 34 3 76(79) 5(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
HOUSTON TX 50 X 34(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40)
HOUSTON TX 64 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
AUSTIN TX 34 1 25(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 1 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
FREEPORT TX 34 19 73(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92)
FREEPORT TX 50 1 49(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50)
FREEPORT TX 64 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 85 9(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 15 26(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 3 40(43) 2(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MATAGORDA TX 34 62 36(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
MATAGORDA TX 50 3 82(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X 45(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
PORT O CONNOR 34 68 30(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98)
PORT O CONNOR 50 6 74(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X 36(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
ROCKPORT TX 34 32 36(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68)
ROCKPORT TX 50 1 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 11 16(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 82 4(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 12 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
MCALLEN TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HARLINGEN TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE