Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
365
FONT12 KNHC 052045
PWSAT2
TROPICAL STORM BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
2100 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 10(20) 3(23) X(23)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 5(18) 1(19)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9) 1(10)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 23(30) 5(35) 1(36)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 5(19) 1(20)
HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 8(22) 1(23)
AUSTIN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) X(28)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 17(19) 5(24) 1(25)
FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 29(45) 3(48) X(48)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) X(13)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 38(47) 6(53) 1(54)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 4(19) 1(20)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 45(56) 4(60) 1(61)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 4(25) 1(26)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 39(43) 5(48) 1(49)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 2(17) X(17)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 39(43) 5(48) 1(49)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 3(17) X(17)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 32(40) 29(69) 1(70) X(70)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 23(30) 2(32) X(32)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 1(12) X(12)
MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 24(30) 3(33) X(33)
MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 30(42) 2(44) X(44)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 18(20) 25(45) 2(47) X(47)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) 34(68) 9(77) 1(78) X(78)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 25(30) 8(38) X(38) X(38)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MERIDA MX 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
MERIDA MX 50 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN