Tropical Cyclone Probabilities
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
990
FONT12 KNHC 051448
PWSAT2
HURRICANE BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022024
1500 UTC FRI JUL 05 2024
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 2(17) 2(19)
FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) 2(12)
JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) 5(23) 1(24)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 2(10)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 1(19)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 22(31) 4(35) 1(36)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8)
MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 27(32) 6(38) 2(40)
MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 33(39) 6(45) 2(47)
PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16)
PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 5(33) 1(34)
ROCKPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9)
ROCKPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 28(30) 8(38) 1(39)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 17(21) 35(56) 3(59) 1(60)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 2(23) 1(24)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9)
MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 4(37) X(37)
MCALLEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10)
MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 36(43) 4(47) X(47)
HARLINGEN TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 35(47) 3(50) 1(51)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) 1(14)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 13(14) 46(60) 19(79) X(79) 1(80)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 24(25) 16(41) 1(42) X(42)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) 1(15)
LA PESCA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) 1(13)
TAMPICO MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
MERIDA MX 34 88 X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88)
MERIDA MX 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
COZUMEL MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN