


Tropical Weather Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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530 AXNT20 KNHC 072141 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jul 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 28.5W from west of the Cabo Verde Islands southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Drier air at the lower levels are infiltrating this wave, with only isolated and slight convection present. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 18N southward, and moving westward around 25 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. Another tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean Islands from 17N southward to far eastern Venezuela. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered showers are evident across the Windward Islands. A northwestern Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from near the Yucatan Channel southward across portions of Honduras, Nicaragua, and western Costa Rica. It is moving westward 15 to 20 kt. Scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are noted near the Yucatan Channel, and off the coast of Nicaragua in the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Mauritania and Western Sahara, then curves southwestward to 06N29W. An ITCZ continues west-northwestward from 06N29W to 09N43W, and from 09N46W to 10N58W. Mainly isolated showers and convection are near the monsoon trough and ITCZ, except scattered moderate from 08N to 11N between 52W and 58W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An elongated upper-level low across the central Gulf is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms over portions of the central and south-central Gulf to the Yucatan Channel. A 1015 low is analyzed over the Florida Panhandle near 30.5N84W with a trough extending from the low into the NE Gulf at 29N86W. Otherwise, a modest 1019 mb high at the central Gulf near 27N88W is maintaining gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the north- central and eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the basin. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail for the rest of the Gulf, except locally fresh near the northern Yucatan Peninsula. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1027 mb Bermuda High continues to support a trade-wind pattern for much of the Caribbean Sea. Some widely scattered showers are possible over the central Caribbean. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are evident at the south-central basin. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas linger near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate with locally fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are found elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong E winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two surface troughs are producing scattered moderate convection east of the Bahamas from 22N to 29N and between 64W and 75W. The subtropical high is supporting light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 27N between 47W and 60W. Otherwise, moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE trade winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present north of 22N between 35W and 73W. West of 73W and north of 22N, gentle to moderate S to SW winds with 2 to 4 ft seas are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 08N to 22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W. North of 16N between Africa and 35W, moderate to fresh NE winds, locally strong between the Canary Islands, and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail south of 16N and east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas through the week. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Fri night. $$ Lewitsky