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Issued by NWS
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468 AXNT20 KNHC 061013 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jul 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The pressure gradient between a 1034 mb high pressure system located N of the Azores and lower pressures in NW Africa will continue to support gale-force northeast winds, with severe gusts, between the Canary Islands until at least 07/0000 UTC according to Meteo France. Once again, scatterometer data confirmed the presence of the gale force winds, particularly between islands. Moderate to rough seas are within these winds, peaking 10 ft based on altimeter data. For more details, please visit the Meteo France High Seas Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern tropical wave is along 23W, and extends S from the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06 to 10N between 20W and 28W. Another tropical wave has its axis near 36W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. A third tropical wave is along 52W, south 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is also near the southern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 76W, and extends from eastern Cuba to inland Colombia. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen between eastern Cuba, Haiti and Jamaica. The northern extent of a tropical wave is over the eastern Bay of Campeche, and extends southward into the eastern Pacific region. Its axis is along 92W. The wave is enhancing convection over SW Guatemala and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the west coast of Africa near 12N16W, and continues westward to 10N24W to 08N42W. The ITCZ extends from 08N42W to near the Suriname/Guyana border. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 13N between 16W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends across north-central Florida and the NE Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are evident over parts of Florida and the NE Gulf. An upper-level low located over the central Gulf is also generating some shower and thunderstorm activity. A 1016 mb high pressure is analyzed near 27N89W. This weather pattern is supporting moderate SE to S winds over the NW Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh NE winds over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of 3 ft or less are across the basin, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft over the NW Gulf. For the forecast, a surface trough will persist across the NE Gulf today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along this trough over the waters near Florida. Weak high pressure will then prevail into the middle of the week. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through at least Wed as a trough develops inland daily and then drifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more details. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in Colombia is resulting in fresh to strong trades over most of the central part of the basin as indicated by recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, an area of showers and thunderstorms is noted ahead of the wave axis, affecting mainly the waters between Jamaica and Cabo Gracias a Dios, Nicaragua. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convection. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are also observed over parts of Nicaragua and Honduras. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France for the Canary Islands. In addition, three tropical waves are moving across the tropical Atlantic. Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information. Tropical Storm Chantal is N of the forecast area. Recent satellite derived wind data indicate that fresh to strong southerly winds associated with the storm are still affecting the waters offshore NE Florida, particularly N of 29N between 75W and 79W. Rough seas are within these winds. An outer rainband from Chantal extends over the waters N of 27N and W of 76W. Farther E, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain associated with a weak surface trough that runs from 29N62W to 23N65W. This feature is under a broad upper-level trough that is helping to sustain this convective activity. The remainder of the Atlantic domain is under the influence of a 1034 mb high pressure system located N of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the Azores high and lower pressures over the NW Africa is allowing for fresh to strong northeast winds north of about 21N and east of 27W, including between the Canary Islands, where winds are reaching gale force, and along coastal Western Sahara. Rough seas are associated with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, as Tropical Storm Chantal continues to move away from the forecast area, the Atlantic ridge will build westward toward Florida and the Bahamas. This pattern will support generally gentle to moderate winds, except for moderate to fresh winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Mon, then fresh to strong winds are expected afterwards. $$ GR