419
AXNT20 KNHC 201816
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Jul 20 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 19N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Widely scattered showers are
seen from 07N to 09N between 26W and 34W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 76W from eastern Cuba
southward into northwestern Colombia. It is moving westward at
near 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
Jamaica and eastern Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near Nouakchott, then extends southwestward across
11N30W to 09N49W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N49W to
10N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
occurring south of the trough from 08N to 11N between
Guinea/Guinea-Bissau coast and 19W. Widely scattered showers are
seen farther west from 05N to 08N between 34W and 45W. No
significant convection is seen near the ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa
Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough reaches northeastward from northwestern Gulf to a
1015 mb low near Houston, Texas then turns eastward to another
1015 mb low near New Orleans, Louisiana. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are found across the northern Gulf, north
of 26N. Convergent southeasterly winds are producing isolated
thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf. A broad surface ridge
runs southwestward from central Florida to a 1017 mb high near
Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to
4 ft are present across the southern Gulf, including the Bay of
Campeche and Straits of Florida. Mostly gentle S to SW winds and 1
to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will remain in place across
the Gulf over the next several days. It will support gentle to
locally moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Pulsing moderate
to fresh winds are expected near and northwest of the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evening and nighttime hours due to local
effects.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large 1029 mb high over the north-central Atlantic near 33N55W
continues to support a trade-wind pattern across much of the
Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are coupling with divergent winds
aloft to trigger Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over
and near Hispaniola, and across the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to
the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional
weather in the Caribbean Sea.

Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident
at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4
to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central and eastern basin,
including the Mona Passage. Light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to
4 ft in ENE swell are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to
moderate easterly winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere
in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, after the passage of the aforementioned tropical
wave, trade winds and associated seas will diminish slightly on
Tue. Winds and seas are expected to increase again across the
eastern and central basin Tue night into Wed as the Atlantic high
pressure strengthens some.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level trough reaches southwestward from a low near 30N67W
across the southeast Bahamas to central Cuba. Divergent winds
related these features are enhancing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms from 20N to 24N between 69W and 73W,
including the southeast and central Bahamas. Refer to the Tropical
Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in
the Atlantic Basin.

A broad surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1029 mb high
near 33N55W to beyond central Florida. It is supporting gentle to
moderate NE to SSE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present north of
20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast, except fresh to
locally strong E to SE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas near the southeast
Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. For the tropical Atlantic
from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to
moderate NNE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft exist. Gentle to
locally moderate southerly winds and monsoonal westerly winds with
4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder
of the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast west of 35W, the surface ridge will continue to
dominate the Atlantic. The associated ridge will slowly lift
northward to near 30N Mon through midweek. The related pressure
gradient will support moderate to fresh easterly winds south of
26N, with winds pulsing to strong during the late afternoons and
evenings off the northern coast of Hispaniola into next week. The
northern portion of a tropical wave will move through the waters
south of 24N through Mon accompanied by scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms, some of which may produce strong gusty
winds and rough seas.

$$

Chan