421
AXNT20 KNHC 141626
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1621 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26.5W from 26N
southward, and  moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted with this wave from 08N to 11N between 20W
and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44.5W from 21N
southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N between 39W and 49W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from Hispaniola to
western Venezuela, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Isolated
moderated convection is depicted north of Hispaniola.

A western Caribbean tropical wave along 85W is approaching the
Gulf of Honduras but otherwise has moved inland into Central
America and now extends south into the far eastern Pacific Ocean.
This wave is moving W at 5 to 10 kt and is inducing scattered
moderate convection near the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guerguerat coast
then extends southwestward through 12N35W to 10N48W. An ITCZ
continues westward from 10N48W to 08N57W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring up to 100 nm along
either side of the ITCZ between 50W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms
across the Bay of Campeche. A weaker trough over the western
Florida Peninsula is leading to isolated moderate convection
offshore Florida extending S into the Florida Straits. Scattered
moderate convection is also depicted in the Louisiana and
Alabama offshore waters. Otherwise, a 1021 mb high centered
28N91W dominates much of the Gulf. Outside of convection,
moderate ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present at the Bay
of Campeche and southeastern Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds with 1 to 2 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through the week supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure centered N of the basin is sustaining a tradewind
dominated weather pattern over the Caribbean. Convection in the
basin is associated with tropical waves. Fresh to strong
easterly winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found at the southern
basin. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft
exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E
winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for rest of the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic ridging
and lower pressure in South America will continue to allow for
fresh to strong trade winds over portions of the southwestern
Caribbean today, and over the central Caribbean through the
forecast period, while expanding in coverage. Fresh winds will
pulse at night in the Windward Passage through Tue. A tropical
wave in the central Caribbean near 71W will reach the western
Caribbean Mon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
within 240 nm west of the wave N of 15N.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms extends from the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba.
Convection near Hispaniola is associated with a Caribbean
Tropical Wave, described in the section above. A weak surface
trough is producing isolated moderate convection from 21N to 27N
between 55.5W and 58W. The remainder of convection in the basin
is also associated with tropical waves or the ITCZ, and is
described in the relevant sections above.

An expansive 1028 mb Bermuda High is supporting gentle to
moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N
between 25W and the Florida/Georgia coast, with fresh ESE winds
and 6 to 8 ft seas near the central and southeast Bahamas. Near
the Canary Islands, moderate with locally fresh NNE winds and
and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist north of 20N between the northwest
Africa coast and 19W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, light to
gentle winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail north of 10N between
the central Africa coast and 35W. In the tropical Atlantic from
10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to
moderate NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge
will extend southwestward to central Florida over the next few
days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will exist
south of the ridge, and light to gentle south to southwest winds
will be north of the ridge. Winds are forecast to increase to
fresh speeds over the southeastern waters starting late on Wed
as central Atlantic high pressure strengthens and a tropical
wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough
accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms extends from
the central Bahamas to eastern Cuba. This feature will continue
westward through Mon. To its E, the northern portion of a
tropical wave that is along 71W and S of 23N will continue
westward reaching the Straits of Florida Tue, with scattered
showers and thunderstorms accompanying it.

$$
KRV