Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
610 AXNT20 KNHC 150607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVE... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 25N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 22W and 31W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 21N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 06N to 11N between 42W and 52W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from the southeast Bahamas southward across Haiti to near the Colombia/Venezuela. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Haiti and nearby waters. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from 19N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present from the Yucatan Channel southward to the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Western Sahara/Mauritania, then continues southwestward across 14N35W to 09N56W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Another surface trough over Florida is enhancing isolated thunderstorms across the west Florida coast. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high at the north- central Gulf, southwest of New Orleans continues to dominate most of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas are evident at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the 1020 mb high pressure will dominate the Gulf through the week, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are found at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft. are noted at the north-central and southwestern basins. Gentle to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure and lower pressure in South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the central basin through the week. Fresh winds will pulse tonight and on Mon night in the Windward Passage. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean near 73W will move across the remainder of the basin through Wed afternoon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough northeast of the Windward Islands is generating scattered moderate convection from 23N to 27N between 57W and 64W. Convergent trade winds are inducing scattered showers and strong thunderstorms in the Great Bahama Bank and near the Cuba`s northern coastline. Refer to the Tropical Waves and ITCZ/Monsoon Trough sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A large dome of 1024 mb high over the central Atlantic is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted from 10N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are present. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will extend southwestward to central Florida through mid-week. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will exist south of the ridge, and light to gentle S to SW winds will be north of the ridge. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh over the southeastern waters starting late on Wed, as the high pressure strengthens some, and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough accompanied by scattered thunderstorms extends from the SE Florida coast to west-central Cuba. This feature will continue westward through Mon. To its east, the northern portion of a tropical wave that is along 74W and south of 22N will continue westward reaching the Straits of Florida Tue, with scattered thunderstorms accompanying it. $$ Chan