268
AXNT20 KNHC 161701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jul 16 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1655 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 39W, south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed
from 07N to 11N and between 35W and 42W.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean, along 61W,
south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 13N and between 57W and 66W.

A tropical wave is along 89W, south of 19N, stretching across the
Yucatan peninsula, Guatemala, El Salvador and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. The wave is moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep
convection is present near the trough axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of NW Mauritania near 21N17W and continues southwestward to 10N29W
and to 14N46W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 10N59W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N to
14N and east of 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery over the
northern Gulf waters, mainly north of 24N. The basin is under the
influence of a weak 1019 mb ridge centered over the NE Gulf,
resulting in light to gentle anticyclonic winds and slight seas.

For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will extend a weak
ridge westward into the northern Gulf of Mexico into the weekend,
supporting moderate or weaker winds and mainly slight seas.
Scattered thunderstorms will linger across the SE Gulf and move
offshore of western Cuba today, behind the northern portion of a
tropical wave that is currently moving into Central America.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1026 mb high pressure system positioned over the central
Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting
moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central and SW
Caribbean waters. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft in the south-
central and SW Caribbean and 4-7 ft in the north- central
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
are prevalent elsewhere in the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between an Atlantic high
pressure ridge extending along 30N-31N and lower pressure across
South America will continue to sustain fresh to strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean before diminishing slightly Thu
through Fri.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N62W to 24N70W supporting
scattered moderate convection within 120 nm on both sides of the
trough axis. The rest of the Atlantic is under the influence of a
broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower
pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds from 15N to 27N and between 35W and 60W. Seas in
these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge will
extend W-SW to Central Florida into the weekend. Winds are
forecast to increase to fresh over the southeastern waters Wed
night through early Fri as the high pressure drifts W and
strengthens some, and a tropical wave moves through tropical
Atlantic waters. Look for winds to pulse to strong each evening
offshore of the N coast of Hispaniola Thu through Sat.

$$
Delgado