319
AXNT20 KNHC 112101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Jul 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine
zone, expect frequent gusts to gale-force mainly between the
Canary Islands from 11/18Z to 13/00Z. Please visit website -
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N to 11N between 18W and 24W.

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from
15N southward, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant
convection is observed.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 22N
southward, moving westward around 10 kt. No significant
convection is observed.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 65W from
20N southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. No significant
convection is observed over the discussion waters.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from
21N southward into the East Pacific Ocean. It is moving westward
at 10 to 15 kt. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring over portions of Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic across the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 10N23W to 06N38W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N38W to 10N57W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical
waves section above, scattered moderate convection is from 02N to
10N between 38W and 41W, and from 07N to 10N between 52W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, with high pressure
prevailing elsewhere. Quiescent conditions prevail, with light to
gentle winds dominating the Gulf waters, with seas of 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up at night off
the NW Yucatan Peninsula through Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are found over
the south central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds, and seas of
2-4 ft, are over the NW Caribbean. Moderate winds, and seas of 4-6
ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may
pulse to near gale force at night off NW Colombia Fri night. Seas
will peak near 10 ft Fri night and Sat night. Gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds are forecast for the northwestern
Caribbean, increasing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of
Honduras, the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage tonight through
Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low near 30N77W to inland
central Florida. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted
within 420 nm SE of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas
of 4-7 ft are N of the Bahamas in the vicinity of the trough. High
pressure dominated the remainder of the waters N of 20N. Aside
from the conditions mentioned with the trough, moderate to fresh
winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail across the much of the waters N
of 20N. S of 20N, moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of
6-7 ft, are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, the trough that extends from a 1012
mb low near 30N77W to inland central Florida will sustain
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the waters
mainly north of the Bahamas during the next few days. The trough
is expected to lift northwestward and move inland the southeastern
U.S. by this weekend. Southeast winds will increase to fresh to
strong speeds east of the trough through early Fri evening.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across
the southeastern waters during the next several days. Seas will
build to 9 ft early Fri. Locally strong winds and rough seas are
likely for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola adjacent waters Fri night
into Sat night.

$$
AL