246
AXNT20 KNHC 121020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Jul 12 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning for their Canarias marine
zone, expect frequent gusts to gale-force mainly with seas to 10
ft between the Canary Islands through 13/00Z. These winds are
being forced by the interaction between the Bermuda-Azores High
and a 1005 mb low over Mauritania. Please visit website
- https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from
21N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 08N-12N between 25W-31W.

The axis of another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 40W
from 16N southward, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection has developed from 06N to 09N between 40W and
43W.

The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 21N
southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 10N-18N between 53W-59W.

The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from
Hispaniola to Colombia, moving westward around 20 kt. No
significant convection is observed in association with this wave..

A western Caribbean tropical wave has now moved inland into
central America and into portions of the Eastern Pacific Ocean,
taking associated convection with it.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic across the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 10N26W. The ITCZ continues from 10N26W
to 09N55W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves
section above, scattered moderate convection is from 03N-09N
between 43W-53W.

The eastern North Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean
along the Panama coast near 09N82W and extends to a 1008 mb low
on the coast of Colombia near 10N76w. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted south of 11N west of 78W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak high pressure has drifted S to the northern Gulf coast just
offshore Louisiana overnight. This is leading to quiescent
conditions with light to moderate winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft. No
significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, the high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up each
night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh trades and seas of 6-8 ft are found over the south central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, the trades are mainly moderate with seas of
32-5 ft. Deep convection in the SW Caribbean is occurring in
association with eastern Pacific monsoon trough, described above.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will
support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central
and southwestern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period.
Winds may pulse to near gale force at night off NW Colombia tonight.
Seas will peak near 10 ft tonight and Sat night. Gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds are forecast for the northwest
Caribbean, pulsing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of
Honduras, the lee of Cuba, and the Windward Passage through Sat
night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on a Gale
Warning in the far E Atlantic near the Canary Islands.

An expansive Bermuda-Azores High extends across the Atlantic north
of the area. This is contributing toward moderate to fresh
trades across nearly the entire Atlantic discussion area, with
seas 4-7 ft. A weak trough in the far NW area is leading to
scattered moderate convection, with fresh S winds to the E of the
trough, N of 29N and W of 74W. A zone of 7 to 9 ft seas an fresh
to locally strong trades extends from 20N to 25N between 55W and
60W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned low pressure
trough will sustain scattered to numerous thunderstorms over the
waters mainly north of the Bahamas during the next few days. The
trough is expected to lift northwestward and move inland the
southeastern U.S. by this weekend. Southeast winds will be to
fresh to strong speeds east of the trough through this evening.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across
the southeast waters into the weekend, where seas will build to 9
ft. Locally strong winds and rough seas are likely for Hispaniola
adjacent waters tonight into Sat night.

$$
Konarik