573
AXNT20 KNHC 122100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Jul 13 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France issued a Gale Warning
for the CANARAIS marine zone near the Canary Islands through
13/03Z. Expect NE winds to Force 8 with seas to 10 ft. Please
visit website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from
20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Limited convection is
where the wave intersects the monsoon trough, and is described
below.

The axis of an eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 61W/62W
from 21N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 59W and 64W.

The axis of a western Caribbean tropical wave is near 77W from
21N southward, moving westward around 15-20 kt. No significant
convection is noted at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic across the coast of
Mauritania near 18N16W to 07N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N38W
to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
monsoon trough between 25W and 40W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 45W
and 52W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is across the SW Gulf. High pressure prevails
across the remainder of the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1021 mb
high centered near 28N89W. Gentle to moderate winds are in the
vicinity of the trough, with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas
are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the Gulf of Mexico
through the forecast period, supporting mainly moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up each
night off the NW Yucatan Peninsula into Sun night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the south central
Caribbean, with moderate to locally fresh winds over the north
central Caribbean and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to locally
moderate winds are found over the western Caribbean. Seas are in
the 6-8 ft range in the central Caribbean, 4-6 ft in the eastern
Caribbean, and 3-4 ft in the western Caribbean.

For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the area will
support fresh to strong trade winds across much of the central and
southwestern Caribbean Sea through the forecast period. Winds may
pulse to near gale force at night off NW Colombia tonight. Seas
will peak near 10 ft tonight and Sat night. Gentle to moderate
northeast to east winds are forecast for the northwest Caribbean,
pulsing to fresh speeds at night in the Gulf of Honduras and in
the Windward Passage through the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Pleas see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
Gale Warning in the far E Atlantic near the Canary Islands.

A surface trough extends from 31N79W to central Florida, supported
by an upper level trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection covers the waters E of Florida to near 73W associated
with these features. Fresh to strong winds are found within 60 nm
east of the trough. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the
discussion waters N of 20N. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and
seas of 6-8 ft prevails over these waters. S of 20N, moderate to
fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong south winds N of
30N between 75W and 78W will diminish late tonight. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh easterly winds will continue across the
southeastern waters through the weekend, where seas will build to
9 ft. Fresh to strong E winds and moderate seas will develop
between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola through Sat night.

$$
AL