610
AXNT20 KNHC 150607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Mon Jul 15 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W from 25N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 07N to 10N between 22W and 31W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 21N southward,
and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 06N to 11N between 42W and 52W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from the southeast
Bahamas southward across Haiti to near the Colombia/Venezuela. It
is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Haiti and nearby waters.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 87W from 19N southward
across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific Ocean. It is
moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are present from the Yucatan Channel southward to
the Gulf of Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Western Sahara/Mauritania, then continues southwestward across
14N35W to 09N56W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest
analysis.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Costa Rica and Panama.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Another surface
trough over Florida is enhancing isolated thunderstorms across
the west Florida coast. Otherwise, a 1020 mb high at the north-
central Gulf, southwest of New Orleans continues to dominate most
of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas are
evident at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SSE
winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the 1020 mb high pressure will dominate the
Gulf through the week, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are found at the
south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds with seas at 4
to 7 ft. are noted at the north-central and southwestern basins.
Gentle to fresh easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure in South America will continue to
sustain fresh to strong trade winds over the central basin
through the week. Fresh winds will pulse tonight and on Mon night
in the Windward Passage. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean
near 73W will move across the remainder of the basin through Wed
afternoon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough northeast of the Windward Islands is generating
scattered moderate convection from 23N to 27N between 57W and 64W.
Convergent trade winds are inducing scattered showers and strong
thunderstorms in the Great Bahama Bank and near the Cuba`s
northern coastline. Refer to the Tropical Waves and ITCZ/Monsoon
Trough sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A
large dome of 1024 mb high over the central Atlantic is
supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft north
of 20N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary
Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 5
to 7 ft seas exist north of 22N between the northwest Africa
coast and 30W. For the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle winds
and seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted from 10N to 22N between the
central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N
to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh E to
SE winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft are present. Gentle to moderate
southerly winds and light to gentle monsoonal winds with 5 to 7 ft
seas in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic
Basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda high pressure ridge
will extend southwestward to central Florida through mid-week.
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will exist south of the ridge,
and light to gentle S to SW winds will be north of the ridge.
Winds are forecast to increase to fresh over the southeastern
waters starting late on Wed, as the high pressure strengthens
some, and a tropical wave moves through tropical Atlantic waters.
A surface trough accompanied by scattered thunderstorms extends
from the SE Florida coast to west-central Cuba. This feature will
continue westward through Mon. To its east, the northern portion
of a tropical wave that is along 74W and south of 22N will
continue westward reaching the Straits of Florida Tue, with
scattered thunderstorms accompanying it.

$$

Chan