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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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550 FXUS63 KARX 151129 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 629 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - One more very warm, sticky today day today before drier and seasonably cool temps return for much of the rest of the week. - Severe storms are possible, especially late this afternoon or early evening, but confidence in storm evolution is low today due to potential impacts from morning showers/storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Today-Tonight: With the clear skies, moist boundary layer, and light flow, fog have formed, even outside of more typical valley locations. This fog will gradually erode through mid-morning. Otherwise, early this morning convection was ongoing across the northern plains ahead of an upstream shortwave trough. It will be yet another challenging forecast for storms today with multiple factors at play. Confidence is low exactly how storms will evolve. In general, convection to the west should continue to drop southeast this morning, likely weakening in time as it approaches, given capping in place and weak moisture transport into the area. However, this evolution is not entirely clear, especially with these storms riding along the gradient of an ample instability environment. Stronger storms could not be completely ruled out even during the morning, especially westward. One possible scenario would be for additional storms to fire along the edge of the outflow from the morning convection or on the cold front, which could organize along the gradient in instability (from northern Iowa into northern Illinois) into a forward propagating MCS during the afternoon/evening, especially across parts of Illinois/Iowa and perhaps far southern Wisconsin. This is the area SPC has included in a level 3 of 5 risk for severe storms. Additional storms could form along the cold front farther north during the later afternoon/evening with some assistance from forcing from the main shortwave trough passing along the Canadian border. However, the effects of any residual cloud cover/capping could impact storm coverage/intensity along the front to north, keeping confidence in these low. Deep layer shear profiles certainly would support storm organization/severe storms with 30 to 50 kts of westerly shear and 20 to 30 kts of 0 to 3 km shear. Damaging winds would be the main hazard if/where a linear convective system organizes, otherwise, some hail would be possible if sufficiently strong updrafts form along the boundary where deep layer shear profiles are oriented at an angle to the cold front. Any storms should exit south and east during the evening. With precipitable water values at 150%+ of average and relatively deep warm cloud depths, any storms will be efficient rain producers. While widespread heavy rain is not likely with this system being fairly progressive, localized amounts of 1 to 2"+ are certainly possible in this environment. Tuesday-Sunday: An extended period of mainly dry, seasonably cool weather is likely for the middle and end of the week as sprawling Canadian high pressure drifts south across the Midwest under northwest flow aloft. A few showers could not be ruled out on Tuesday as a trough deepens over the Great Lakes ahead of the high. High temps will be mainly in the 70s to low 80s with lows in the 50s, and even some 40s in typically cooler locales. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 Main taf concerns are LIFR conditions early in the taf period...then a couple of rounds of convection today. Areas of dense fog has developed across much of the area this morning. Visibility has been reduced to a quarter of a mile at LSE taf site and RST taf site has varied between one to four miles per latest metars. Expect the fog to stick around early in the taf period and create IFR/LIFR conditions at both RST/LSE taf sites. Then...first complex of showers/storms will move over the area this morning and impact both taf sites. Have convection for a few hours this morning before exiting the area. The next concern is the second round of convection. However...this convection may be more scattered in coverage and lower confidence in impacting the taf sites for this afternoon/evening. For now have introduced vicinity showers into the taf sites for late afternoon/early evening. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR may occur in the two rounds of convection...have left mention out of tafs for now. VFR conditions should prevail after the evening convection moves east of the taf sites. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 305 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024 A swath of 2 to 4 inches of rain fell this weekend along the Mississippi River in west-central Wisconsin into central Wisconsin with river rises/flooding along portions of the Kickapoo and Trempealeau Rivers. Although the environment today will be favorable for high rain rates with a moist, unstable environment, confidence in organized heavy rainfall is low today with the progressive shortwave/front. However, localized heavy rainfall amounts (1 to 2") are possible with any storms. Given saturated conditions and low flash flood guidance in the areas that received higher amounts over the weekend, convective trends will need to be closely monitored today. However, confidence at this time is not high enough for a flash flood watch. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...DTJ HYDROLOGY...JM