Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI
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698 FXUS63 KARX 170710 AFDARX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service La Crosse WI 210 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably cool, dry weather will prevail through Friday, with slow warming into the weekend. - Scattered shower/storm chances (20-40%) at times this weekend into early next week, but organized heavy rain/severe weather potential is quite low at this time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 210 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Today-Friday: Seasonably cool and dry Canadian high pressure will build south across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions through Friday bringing seasonably cool temps and dry conditions to the area. Diurnal cumulus development will occur this afternoon with boundary layer warming beneath the large upper trough/cold pool centered over the Great Lakes. Highs today will be mainly in the 70s, about 10 degrees below mid-July averages, with only slow moderation in temps by Friday as the surface ridge slides east of the area. Humidity levels will be very comfortable for mid-summer thanks to the Canadian airmass in place keeping dew points in the 50s. Although the dry air may be a limiting factor, with light boundary layer flow under the ridge, will have to watch for any early morning fog development over the next few mornings, especially in favored low-lying areas and valleys. Saturday-Tuesday: Slight warming with low shower/storm chances Some moisture increase will occur heading into the weekend and early next week back towards seasonal values as the surface ridge moves east. However, a stagnant, blocking flow pattern will evolve featuring an amplified western US ridge and broad, weak troughing across parts of the central plains/Mississippi Valley. Scattered diurnally enhanced showers/storms associated with weak lower predictability waves within the broader trough are possible during this time. However, there is not much signal for organized severe weather in this pattern with minimal shear. Little change in airmass will occur through this period with the global ensemble suite showing relatively small day-to-day temperature variation in the interquartile ranges. Highs generally in the the mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s are likely this weekend through the middle of next week, near to a touch below average. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1103 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the TAF period with scattered low to mid-level clouds. As we head into the afternoon, winds will increase to around 10 kts remaining generally north to northwesterly. Cannot completely rule out some valley fog at KLSE early this morning with decoupling winds, however with winds just off the deck to around 15 kts in the 16.21z RAP this appears very unlikely (5-10% chance). && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JM AVIATION...Naylor