406
FXUS63 KARX 162331
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
631 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant weather ahead! A cooler, less humid, and drier
  forecast through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

A fairly nice start to the day with observations as of 2 PM showing
temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. A bit of relief after a hot, humid, and
quite busy weather weekend. Satellite imagery and RAP progs show an
upper level trough which is forecast to move down across the Great
Lakes into Wednesday, with a wave currently moving across the
region. Hi-res models still produce some light echoes across the
area, with current radar starting to show some development in the
north. Have maintained low chances (15-25%) for some
sprinkles/showers this afternoon and early evening with weak CAPE
values looking to keep thunder chances lower as well. Otherwise, any
showers that do develop should diminish with the loss of daytime
heating.

An amplified upper level pattern will remain as a strong ridge holds
across the western U.S. and a trough over the east-central U.S.
through the week. At the surface Canadian high pressure looks to
dominate over the region bringing cooler conditions and less humid
air. Low spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles of
ensemble/blended model guidance supports near to below normal
temperatures with highs in the 70s to near 80 Wednesday through
Friday. A slight upward trend in temperatures is indicated for the
weekend into early next week, though highs are still forecast to
only top out in the mid 70s to low 80s. There remains low signal
among ensemble model solutions for any impactful precipitation
through much of the week, so have maintained a mainly dry forecast.
Some low rain chances return to the forecast for the weekend, but
confidence is low with the given pattern and low predictability
of any waves.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Jul 16 2024

As area transitions into cooler and drier regime thanks to trough
settling into upper Great Lakes, will be mainly dealing with diurnal
impacts as subtle short wave features rotate through in flow.
Conditions will remain mainly VFR and outside of an isolated shower
threat, diurnal stratacumulus ceilings are about only expected
impact to aviation through mid week.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...EMS
AVIATION...Shea