451
FNUS53 KAPX 051900
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

...Little in the way of fire weather concerns...

.DISCUSSION...

Although definitely not seeing any evidence of widespread rain
after today, the threat for at least scattered showers and
thunderstorms will continue into the first part of next week.
Relative humidity values will remain elevated well into next week.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-060800-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers until 2400. Scattered thunderstorms.
                    Scattered rain showers after 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (26).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.26 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers until 1200. Slight
                    chance of thunderstorms. Slight chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (303).
Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 4 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (368).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-060800-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (28).
Mixing Height.......700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.34 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler...except 4 degrees warmer near
                    the coast.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter...except 2 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (246).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.15 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (23).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier...except 7 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (384).
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-060800-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Numerous showers
                    until 2400. Scattered thunderstorms. Scattered
                    showers after 2400. Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (31).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.03- 0.38 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered rain showers and slight chance
                    of thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 2 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts
                    up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Fair (298).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog.
Min Temperature.....52-57...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent...except 85-90 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (19).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier...except 2 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (416).
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-060800-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Numerous rain
                    showers until 2400. Scattered thunderstorms.
                    Scattered rain showers after 2400. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....57-62.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (37).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.58 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Scattered showers and thunderstorms until
                    1200, then slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms.
Max Temperature.....71-76.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree cooler.
Min Humidity........62-67 percent.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 10 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (342).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....53-58.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (16).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 71-76 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........50-55 percent...except 64-69 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent drier...except 5 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (522).
Mixing Height.......5100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-060800-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
300 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers and
                    numerous thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    scattered showers and thunderstorms. Patchy fog
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....58-63.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light. Gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (41).
Mixing Height.......900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.18- 0.45 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200. Isolated thunderstorms until 1200.
                    Scattered rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms
                    after 1200.
Max Temperature.....73-78.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........64-69 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (309).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.14 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms until 2400. Patchy
                    fog.
Min Temperature.....54-59.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (18).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....78-83.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........49-54 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (617).
Mixing Height.......6000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

MSB