358
FXUS63 KAPX 111729
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
129 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Diurnal showers/storms this afternoon/evening northern lower.

- Warmer and more humid this weekend into early next week with
  occasional shower/storm chances.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1045 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Weak col/deformation region overhead this morning...with vort max
over NW IL...and additional strand of PV stretching up into Ontario.
Generally SW flow aloft ahead of this helping advect some of those
high clouds up into the region from the SW; behind/west of this
axis, more north/northeasterly...with nebulous surface flow in the
region. Flow around aforementioned IL vort max advecting some smoke
into the region from central Ontario, per visible satellite. Ridge
axis just to our northwest...with surface high over WI. Low-level
moisture still lingering around the area, as evidenced by some
morning fog that is just now getting burned off; with diurnal
heating finally kicking in, starting to see development of diurnal
cu... especially over the UP where skies have been clearer thus far.
Thinking we`ll continue to see low clouds break up and diurnal cu
develop through midday over the area, even over our western half of
the CWA...and also expect lake breezes to begin to develop with
diurnal heating. Do think some PVA from that IL niblet will sneak in
here this afternoon with peak heating...which could help boost the
cause of pop-up showers and thunderstorms otherwise expected to pop
along the lake breezes in a marginally unstable atmosphere. Flow
aloft to remain quite weak...so not expecting much in the way of
storm organization with any of these. Do think there will be
annoyingly nebulous storm motion/pulse-y storms driven by outflow
boundaries, though...which, aside from generating a localized heavy
rain threat where storms persist and/or train/redevelop...could lead
to some pulses of stronger storms...and not impossible that precip
loading of the updraft could lead to some localized reasonably gusty
downbursts despite the lack of stronger winds aloft. Bottom
line...generic summertime weather, with the usual afternoon popcorn
type storms...where many will stay dry, and others will get dumped
on.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Pattern/synopsis: TC Beryl remnants exiting across Lk Ontario. A
ridge of high pressure extends from James Bay to Lk Superior and
southern MN. The high will gradually build into MI thru tonight.
Aloft, a ne-sw oriented 500mb trof will be stalled overhead.

Forecast: Beryl precip has exited eastward, and leftover cloud
cover is limited. A few patches of cu/stratocu remain, mainly
in the east. Just a touch of shallow fog to this point. Quiet wx
expected this morning. Diurnal heating will result in MlCape
values rising to about 600j/kg by mid-afternoon. Cooler temps
aloft under the upper trof will aid in instability development.
Converging lake breezes, especially off of Lake Huron, should be
sufficient to generate convection this afternoon/evening in the
interior of n central and ne lower MI. Those chances will be
highest south of M-32. Winds/shear are very weak, less than
15kt, so storm organization will be poor. Should have enough
instability for a few t-storms, but severe seems unlikely.
Precip will diminish and end as we move thru this evening with
loss of heating.

Partly cloudy to mostly clear skies tonight, and with the high
building in, winds will be light. Expect more fog tonight than
we are seeing early this morning.

Max temps today upper 70s to near 80f (a smidge cooler on some
of the beaches). Lows tonight in the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 327 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Pattern Forecast: Warmer and more humid conditions are expected
through early next week as higher heights build across the region. A
cold front then ushers in cooler temperatures for the second half of
next week.

Forecast Details: Weak troughing aloft in combination with lingering
low level moisture and heating induced instability (0-1 km mixed
layer cape upwards to 500 J/kg) may spark a few afternoon showers
and storms once again Friday afternoon. The trough then lifts away
to the northeast of the region Friday night into Saturday allowing
short wave ridging to temporarily take control. This looks like the
best chance for rain free conditions across the region. Extended
guidance then varies on the timing/details of a couple of short
waves possibly moving through the flow Sunday and again Monday.
Either way, any weakness in height fields in combination with
daytime heating would likely lead to the development of showers and
thunderstorms once again. It`s far too early to discern what the
coverage will be so will keep pops in the chance category for now
but could see later shifts having to raise pops to likely. Extended
guidance is in better agreement that a surface cold front will move
through the region at some point on Tuesday with lowered
heights/cooler temperatures aloft likely to follow for the second
half of next week. High temperatures will likely hinge on the amount
of cloud cover/convection over the next few days but expect highs in
the 80s for the most part through Tuesday (perhaps a couple of spots
touch the 90 degree mark) with the cooler 70s expected Wednesday. It
is expected to be rather muggy as well with night time lows lucky to
fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s through Monday night (the more
comfortable low and mid 50s likely arrive Tuesday night).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Afternoon clouds bubbling up attm; cloud bases around 3-5kft...with
some high clouds (15kft+) moving in from the SW. Lake breezes have
developed as of 17z...so will look for onshore winds at TVC, MBL,
APN in particular...though winds generally remain light and
variable. Expecting a few pop-up showers/storms this afternoon
through 0-3z, esp across interior northern Lower MI (e.g., KGOV,
KY31, KCAD, etc), most likely away from the TAF sites.
However...think there is a minor threat for some showers/storms at
APN, CIU, and perhaps PLN and TVC depending on how quickly lake
breeze moves inland. Weak flow tonight has potential for more
fog/low stratus at times. Not out of the question we could see some
morning showers/storms, esp for MBL/TVC...but this is more uncertain
attm. Weak offshore flow tonight becoming slightly more southerly
Friday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FEF
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...AJS
AVIATION...FEF