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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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052 FXUS64 KAMA 062317 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 617 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Warmer temperatures are forecast across the area compared to yesterday. 80`s and lower 90`s can be expected as 850 mb reside in the upper 20`s (degrees Celsius) and cloud coverage should not impose on day time heating this afternoon. Instead, coverage should steadily increase towards the evening hours. Tomorrow, a cold front will surge through the area from the north. Additional cloud coverage and perhaps some precipitation chances will restrict the northern Panhandles from warming up to the 90`s. Instead, upper 70`s and 80`s are foreseen. Further south, 90 degree temperatures may still be met thanks to the timing of the front. It may not pass through the whole CWA until the night time hours; but of course, a faster frontal progression will lead to lower day time highs overall. A field of cumulus has generated over central portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Tonight a disturbance from the Rocky Mountain range in Colorado will advance southeast into our area. The best environment and source of lift favors the Oklahoma Panhandle and far northern portions of the Texas Panhandle. So thunderstorm, some strong to severe, are possible ahead of the boundary in the late evening hours and overnight period today. Tomorrow, additional storms are expected to form in the eastern Panhandles ahead of the incoming cold front. Severe storms are possible again, with damaging winds, large hail, and a tornado or two are the primary hazards. If convection can become more widespread as opposed to isolated the tornado threat would decrease, but the flash flooding potential would raise instead. Finally, as Sunday night become Monday morning, another band of showers should develop behind the main cold front and showers with isolated storms will be possible for the central and eastern zones of the CWA and last through Monday morning. Rangel && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Residual showers and thunderstorms in the wake of the cold front should move south throughout the first half of Monday before H500 NW flow returns to the region at the base of the mid level trough as seen by the latest 06/12Z model and numerical guidance. The main trough axis should reach the Red River valley of north central Texas by Monday night. This should help to steer what is left of now Hurricane Beryl downstream of the trough axis and into northeast Texas. For the Panhandles, some high clouds from the remnant tropical system may reach our region, but thats about it. Tuesday through the remainder of the long term forecast period, the main H500 quasi-stationary high pressure system over the Great Basin in the western CONUS, NW flow with diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are possible, favoring the central and western Panhandles each day. Towards the end of the forecast period, H500 flow should become quite anemic with the main high shifting NE of the Four Corners Region according to the latest guidance. This should limit our precipitation chances. High temperatures to start will be well below average and then rise back to above average by the end of the forecast period. Meccariello && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Sat Jul 6 2024 Thunderstorms in the vicinity of KAMA capable of heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds should move out and dissipate by 01-02z. After that, VFR conditions should be in place at all sites, although some marginal LLWS is possible overnight into the morning hours thanks to a strengthening low level jet. KGUY has the best chance for LLWS, but mentions may be needed by the 06z TAF issuance should confidence increase. Winds will switch from southerly to north-northeasterly tomorrow as a front moves in. Harrel && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 87 68 92 63 / 40 20 20 50 Beaver OK 89 62 79 60 / 10 40 30 50 Boise City OK 88 59 80 57 / 10 20 10 40 Borger TX 92 70 92 65 / 30 20 30 60 Boys Ranch TX 90 67 92 63 / 30 20 10 50 Canyon TX 86 66 94 61 / 40 20 10 50 Clarendon TX 85 67 97 63 / 10 20 40 60 Dalhart TX 88 62 85 58 / 30 10 10 40 Guymon OK 89 61 81 58 / 10 20 20 50 Hereford TX 89 67 94 63 / 40 20 10 40 Lipscomb TX 89 67 85 62 / 0 30 50 70 Pampa TX 87 67 91 62 / 20 10 40 60 Shamrock TX 88 69 96 63 / 0 10 50 70 Wellington TX 90 70 99 64 / 10 10 50 70 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....29 AVIATION...38