Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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577 FXUS64 KAMA 031725 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 943 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northeast across west Texas this morning. These showers and storms will continue to move across portions of the Panhandles through the morning into the afternoon hours. Severe weather is not expected with the showers and storms through at least early afternoon. The severe threat for today will be quite limited to any storms moving in from the west later today. Even with that being said, cloud cover and these showers will limit daytime heating which should limit or even inhibit the severe potential later today. Adjusted PoPs based on latest radar and hi-res trends as well as decreased high temperatures for today with cloud cover and showers remaining over the region. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Thursday night) Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The cold front that made it through the southern Texas Panhandle earlier tonight is expected to stall and dissipate today. This will allow southerly moist low level flow to move back across the Panhandles today. This moisture coupled with a couple of disturbances aloft should be enough to continue to fire showers and thunderstorms through tonight. Some of the storms may become severe with damaging winds the main threat. However, a hailstone to the size of a half dollar would not be out of the question. On the 4th of July, a stronger cold front is expected to move through the Panhandles during the late morning and afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the southeast Texas Panhandle in the afternoon and evening along and ahead of the front. Shower and thunderstorm development is expected to increase after midnight of the 4th into the 5th as an upper level disturbance approaches in the northwest flow aloft. && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 248 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 The northwest flow aloft is expected to continue through Tuesday of next week with a high centered over California and Nevada and a trough centered over the Great Lakes. This flow coupled with weak disturbances will continue to bring daily chances of showers and thunderstorms to the Panhandles. The northwest flow will also usher in another cold front on Sunday. High temperatures are expected to generally remain below normal from Friday through next Tuesday. However, Sunday could be just a tad above normal. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 VFR conditions are expected at the terminals. Winds around 10 kts out of mainly the south to southeast are forecast at the sites until a cold front moves down the Plains tonight. Winds behind the front will switch to out of the north with gusts upwards of 25 to 30 kts. Rain showers will continue today at KAMA for a few hours. Additional showers or storms are possible at KDHT/KGUY after 00z, confidence is not high enough to mention at KDHT, but have included VCTS at KGUY for best timing. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 70 93 65 84 / 20 10 50 30 Beaver OK 67 87 61 85 / 30 10 30 10 Boise City OK 62 84 58 81 / 30 0 40 20 Borger TX 72 95 65 88 / 20 10 50 30 Boys Ranch TX 67 93 63 84 / 20 0 50 30 Canyon TX 69 93 63 82 / 20 10 50 40 Clarendon TX 72 96 65 83 / 20 20 40 30 Dalhart TX 63 88 59 82 / 30 0 40 20 Guymon OK 64 86 59 84 / 30 0 40 20 Hereford TX 70 95 65 83 / 20 10 50 30 Lipscomb TX 70 91 63 85 / 20 10 30 10 Pampa TX 70 92 63 84 / 20 10 50 30 Shamrock TX 74 99 66 87 / 20 20 40 30 Wellington TX 76 100 68 88 / 20 20 40 40 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....15 AVIATION...05