644
FXUS64 KAMA 121152
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
652 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Another couple of roasting July days are in store, as more
locations across the Panhandles are slated to see triple digit
highs. We`re still seated along the periphery of an upper level
high situated near the Great Basin to Four Corners region, as it
builds eastward. Although this north-northeasterly flow aloft, no
notable disturbances, and weak instability are less than ideal
for any additional precipitation chances today, we can`t rule out
about a 10% chance of development over northwest Oklahoma or
southeast Colorado sneaking into northern portions of the forecast
area this afternoon-evening. Copy and paste the forecast for
Saturday with temperatures still climbing in the upper 90s to low
100s, and a very slim shot at diurnal convection in the north.

Main take aways: It`s going to be hot, especially in Palo Duro
Canyon and other hot spots where highs could approach 105 degrees.
Perhaps a few folks in the northern Panhandles could see an
afternoon-evening storm with heavy rain and gusty winds. But the
odds are quite low and severe storms aren`t expected. Finally,
south-southwest winds will be on the breezy side at times, with
peak gusts around 20-30 mph.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

The main H500 high over the Four Corners Region will continue to
dictate the weather pattern in the long term forecast period.
Starting on Sunday through most of Tuesday, the main center of
the High and its 594 decameter contour will extend east into the
Panhandles. This will support large scale upper level descent in
the main atmospheric profile. This should support dry conditions
during this time period along with warm temperatures. High
temperatures Sunday into Tuesday will remain slightly above
average with some areas as high as the 100-103 range each day.

From Tuesday night through the remainder of the long term
forecast period, the main H500 high begins to shift back to the
west towards the Great Basin region. Mid level northerly flow will
return to the southern High Plains and bring back diurnally
driven chances for showers and thunderstorms. Aided also by a cold
front by mid week, this could help to make some storms more
strong to possible severe with damaging wind gusts and locally
heavy rain the main hazards at this time. High temperatures behind
the passing cold front will drop to slightly below average going
towards the end of the forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Aside from some marginal LLWS at KGUY this morning, VFR conditions
will prevail for the next 24 hrs. Still can`t rule out about a 10%
chance of a storm in the northern Panhandles after 21z today, but
there`s a very low chance any terminals would be affected. Winds
will be out of the south-southwest 15-25 kts.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                98  71  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                 101  73 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              98  68  98  67 /  10  10   0   0
Borger TX                 104  73 103  72 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX             101  71 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  97  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               98  70  97  70 /  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 99  66  99  65 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                 101  70 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                98  68  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX               102  73 101  71 /  10   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   98  71  97  69 /  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX               101  70  98  70 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX             101  70  99  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...38