Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
448 FXUS64 KAMA 040610 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 110 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 As has been the theme for the past few days, precipitation chances continue both today and tomorrow for the Panhandles. A few storms may have the potential to be strong to severe, with damaging winds and large hail the primary hazards. Most areas will remain around or below average for temperatures on both of these days. Satellite imagery depicts cloud cover remaining across most of the Panhandles with the exceptions being the far southeastern TX Panhandle and much of the west. Cumulus are developing east of the mountains in NM/CO and a few showers/storms are starting to form and slowly drift off to the east. With the cloud cover and rain showers lingering across the Panhandles today, temperatures have stayed cool for areas along a line roughly from Hereford, to Amarillo/Dumas, and up through Canadian to the northeastern Panhandles. Have adjusted high temperatures down and increased PoPs for areas receiving rain showers. Will need to keep an eye on the storms moving off of the higher terrain as they move towards the Panhandles. The storms will be moving into a slightly higher shear environment as they move over the Southern High Plains this evening. Cannot rule out a storm or two become severe, but with temperatures remaining quite cool today, the environment likely will not be the most favorable today. For Independence Day, a cold front will propel down the High Plains and will move over the Panhandles during the daytime hours. Northerly winds behind the front are expected with some breezy to gusty winds. This front will also limit daytime heating for the northern zones, keeping these areas in the 80s whereas the south should be able to reach at least the mid to upper 90s. Current expectation is that the front will clear most of, if not all of, the Panhandles by late afternoon, with the southeast being the potential area staying ahead of the front. The front tomorrow should be the focal point for afternoon/evening storms and with the current forecast having it south of the CWA, storm chances are very low and should not have much, if any, impact on Independence Day evening activities. Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night into Friday morning as an upper level disturbance moves over the Panhandles. Muscha && .LONG TERM ... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024 Showers and thunderstorm chances continue each day from Friday through Tuesday for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Some of the storms could be strong to severe on these days. Temperatures are forecast to be right around average or just below average. Northwest flow at H500 will prevail each day during the long term forecast period. For Friday, a trough will will be located across the north central CONUS with ridging out west. The Panhandles will still be influenced by the cold front from the day prior and H850 temperatures are forecast to be around 20 Celsius by peak heating on Friday afternoon. Temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s across the region with some locations potentially in the upper 70s. Precipitation from the morning should dissipate or move off to the east before another band moves in from the west during the evening hours. Model guidance deviates on the location of the better precipitation bands, but the highest chances for precipitation will be across the central and west through Saturday morning. Not much change is currently expected Saturday through the middle of next week. The northwest flow aloft will continue to allow shortwaves to move across the region and with moisture continuing to be in place, showers and storms should be able to develop across portions of the area each day. Additionally, this flow will not be the most conducive for temperatures to reach the triple digit mark, so highs in the 80s and 90s are expected this weekend through early next week. Muscha && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Jul 4 2024 For the 06Z TAFs, the latest round of showers and thunderstorms is moving east of the terminal sites and have opted not to include mention. Based on latest numerical weather model guidance, it appears the TAF sites will remain dry through Independence Day and this has been reflected in the latest forecast. A cold front will track across the region this morning with gusty north winds in its wake before wind speeds diminish by around late afternoon 02 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 65 84 62 90 / 50 30 30 30 Beaver OK 61 86 63 90 / 20 10 10 20 Boise City OK 57 82 59 88 / 30 20 30 30 Borger TX 66 89 65 95 / 40 30 30 30 Boys Ranch TX 64 85 63 92 / 50 30 40 30 Canyon TX 64 82 61 89 / 50 40 40 30 Clarendon TX 66 83 64 89 / 40 30 30 30 Dalhart TX 59 82 59 91 / 40 20 40 20 Guymon OK 60 84 60 90 / 30 20 30 30 Hereford TX 65 84 63 91 / 50 30 40 30 Lipscomb TX 63 86 63 91 / 30 10 20 20 Pampa TX 65 84 62 90 / 40 30 20 30 Shamrock TX 67 87 64 91 / 40 30 20 30 Wellington TX 68 88 64 92 / 40 40 20 20 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...02