449
FXUS64 KAMA 171924
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Today, an upper-level ridge is in the process of retrograding from
New Mexico more toward the Four Corner states intersection, causing
northwesterly flow aloft. Forecast models show negative 700mb theta-
e advection moving in from southern Kansas and western Oklahoma
through this afternoon into the Panhandles. Given that, and the lack
of a significant forcing mechanism this afternoon, thinking that the
NBM`s PoPs are far too high. Have lowered PoPs in the eastern half
of the combined Panhandles to less than 10%. Meanwhile, convection
has already begun to develop along the Rockies and should move east
or east-southeasterly through this afternoon. This evening, flow
aloft turns more northerly which will favor more of a
southeasterly storm motion. This may cause any convection that
moves off the higher terrain to stay west and south of the
Panhandles. However, have left PoPs in for the western combined
Panhandles in case storms can make it into the area. If so, there
is a low chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm. Models show
MLCAPE as high as 500-1500 J/kg with modest but sufficient shear
for storm organization. Winds up to 60 mph would be possible along
with small hail. Again, though, there is merely a low chance for
a strong to severe thunderstorm which is also conditional upon
thunderstorms making it into the western combined Panhandles. PoPs
tonight, and especially after Midnight, were again too high given
the lack of a significant forcing mechanism and continued
negative 700mb theta-e advection.

Thursday, flow aloft again starts northwesterly but turns northerly
in the afternoon. This would keep any convection that develops on
the higher terrain out of the CWA. Forcing will be very weak, but
it`s not out of the realm of possibilities that flow aloft may
become diffluent enough to force some thunderstorms north of the
Panhandles or in the northern combined Panhandles. However,
confidence is very low.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The main monsoon pattern with the main H500 high centered within
the Four Corners Region will dictate the weather pattern
throughout the long term forecast period. Going through the coming
weekend into early next week, as the main UL sinusoidal synoptic
patter becomes quite exaggerated across the central CONUS, in-conjunction
with H500 high to the west, a deep positivity tilted and/or cut
off low over the mid Mississippi River valley will aid the H500
north and northwesterly flow. This will aid showers and
thunderstorm chances for all of the Panhandles, especially late
this weekend into early next week. High temperatures will be at or
slightly below average throughout the long term forecast period.

Meccariello

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through this forecast period along
with winds around 10 kts or less. There is a 20-30% chance for
showers or thunderstorms at KDHT but confidence is too low to
include in the TAF at this point.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                65  89  66  92 /  20  10  20  10
Beaver OK                  63  88  63  92 /  10  10  20  10
Boise City OK              62  87  61  92 /  40  30  10  20
Borger TX                  68  94  68  97 /  10  10  20  10
Boys Ranch TX              66  91  66  95 /  30  20  20  10
Canyon TX                  64  88  64  91 /  20  10  20  20
Clarendon TX               65  88  65  91 /  10  10  10  10
Dalhart TX                 63  88  62  93 /  40  30  20  10
Guymon OK                  63  88  62  93 /  10  20  20  10
Hereford TX                64  89  66  93 /  40  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                65  88  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   64  88  64  91 /  10  10  10  10
Shamrock TX                65  90  65  92 /  10  10  10  10
Wellington TX              66  92  65  93 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...52