918
FXUS64 KAMA 150809
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
309 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A roasting July day is at the plate across the Lone Star state,
thanks to continued high pressure aloft. Right off the bat, it`s
safe to say today will be the hottest day of the year so far for
most of the Panhandles. Record highs are teed up to be knocked
out of the park at all climate sites, especially Borger where a
forecast high of 109 would fly past the previous record of 105.
Regardless of where you find yourself this afternoon, it`ll be no
walk in the park, with triple digit heat expected throughout the
forecast area. For this reason, a heat advisory is in effect for
most of the combined Panhandles, including Palo Duro Canyon, where
high temperatures may exceed 105 degrees. So don`t get yourself
caught in a pickle, be sure to hydrate and take extra heat safety
precautions if outside this afternoon! If you don`t have to get
out, it`s not a bad day to be a homer and stay inside.

On top of the heat, we can`t rule out a pop up shower or storm
coming into play across the northern Panhandles this afternoon
and evening. Any storm would be on the weak side, with gusty
winds, lightning, and brief downpours possible.

Taking a hack at tomorrow`s forecast, heat sticks around with
highs in the 90s on deck for the northern Panhandles behind a
stalling boundary, and triple digits slated to its south. Thanks
to upper ridging retrograding, increased moisture and a minor
shortwave disturbance will be sent down with the boundary. This
should help generate isolated convection Tuesday afternoon,
becoming more widespread as a storm complex slides off the higher
terrain into the northern Panhandles by Tuesday evening-night. The
atmosphere looks to notably more juiced tomorrow (forecast MLCAPE
and DCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg), so stronger to severe
storms could throw us a curveball with hail and damaging wind gust
potential. PWAT values will load up through the day as well
(locally over 1.50"), so isolated areas of very heavy rainfall
will be in the hole for Tuesday night.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

A pattern shift will occur mid week with the high pressure
weakening and shifting to be over the four corner region. As this
occurs the trough that is present over the Great Lakes region
will deepen and push into the southern plains. This pattern will
push an unseasonable cold front across the southern plains on
Wednesday. This front will bring much cooler conditions with
temperatures falling 10 to 15 degrees that will leave highs in the
80s to 90s. This is unseasonably cool for summer and could be a
welcome reprieve from the hot temperatures that are currently
impacting the panhandles. The front will also bring in a
considerable amount of moisture. This would see PWATs in the 1 in
to 1.5 in range which is in the top 10% of moisture events for
this time of year. This moisture coupled with unstable conditions
from the trough and cold front will cause rain showers and
thunderstorms across the entire panhandles through the whole day.
While the environment doesn`t look the most favorable for
organized convection as the shear is on the lower side a few
stronger storms cannot be ruled out. The high amounts of moisture
is causing some flooding concern as storm motion will likely be
slow. Thursday and Friday should still see the trough and some
associated moisture linger across the souther plains. This
moisture and generally unstable conditions should lead to daily
rain showers and thunderstorms for the panhandles. Temperatures
for these days should see a slight warming trend but still remain
on the cooler side with highs in the 80s to 90s. The weekend looks
favorable to see a increase in wet conditions as the trough send
another cold front with a surge of colder and moister air to the
southern plains. There is already signs that the PWATs will exceed
1.5 in which would make it this moisture very abnormally high.
However it is very uncertain how much moisture will actually
materialize so confidence in such high values is very low.
Regardless the increase in moisture and instability will lead to
further rain showers and thunderstorms for the entire panhandles.
Temperatures should fall to the coolest of the week with highs
mainly in the 80s with a few spots sticking only to the 70s being
possible.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2024

VFR conditions are anticipated throughout the period at all sites.
Can`t rule out a few showers and storms near KDHT and KGUY after
00z, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this
time. Winds will be out of the south-southwest at 10-20kts until a
boundary and mid level cloud ceiling slides through from the
northwest near the end of the period.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX               103  74 100  69 /   0  10  20  40
Beaver OK                 107  73  97  66 /  10  10  10  50
Boise City OK             103  68  96  63 /  10  20  30  70
Borger TX                 109  76 105  71 /   0  10  20  40
Boys Ranch TX             106  73 102  68 /   0  10  20  50
Canyon TX                 102  71  99  68 /   0  10  20  30
Clarendon TX              102  74 101  71 /   0   0  10  20
Dalhart TX                104  68  98  64 /   0  10  20  50
Guymon OK                 106  70  97  64 /  10  20  20  60
Hereford TX               104  70 101  68 /   0   0  10  30
Lipscomb TX               107  75  99  68 /   0  10  20  40
Pampa TX                  103  73 100  68 /   0  10  20  40
Shamrock TX               104  73 103  71 /   0   0  10  20
Wellington TX             105  73 104  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ002>015-018>020-317.

OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...98