792
FXUS61 KALY 111032
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
632 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be a much quieter weather day, with some scattered
showers for northern areas and mainly dry weather elsewhere. There
will be additional chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
Friday afternoon into Saturday from the Capital District south and
east with things drying out for the second half of the weekend.
Temperatures and humidity remain above normal through at least the
first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.Update...As of 6:25 AM EDT...Current surface analysis shows
cold front/dew point boundary tracking through the western
portion of our forecast area. Behind this boundary, dew points
have dropped into the upper 60s, as have temperatures, vs
temperatures and dew points in the low 70s ahead of the
boundary. Also seeing a few showers, mainly across the ADKs near
the surface low and upper trough and a few additional showers
exiting Litchfield County to the east out ahead of the cold
front. Overall mostly just minor adjustments with this update to
better align with current trends. Otherwise, previous forecast
for a warm but quieter weather day remains on track with more
details below...

.Previous...Upper troughing is centered west of our region over
the Great Lakes, with a 1006 mb surface low associated with the
remnants of Beryl currently located over the upper Hudson
Valley. Today will be a much quieter weather day. The surface
low weakens as it tracks from the ADKs into central VT and
eventually NH by this afternoon. The cold frontal boundary
tracks through our region this morning, helping to lower dew
points slightly. Most of our region will be under the system`s
dry slot today, especially for areas along and south of I-90.
Here, mid-level drying and subsidence along with a capping
inversion should lead to mainly dry conditions. Further north
closer to the surface low and upper trough, there will be a few
lingering showers through the day today, although these will
generally be light. A couple rumbles of thunder are possible
with any showers here. We should see more breaks of clearing as
we go through the day; with a warm airmass still in place we
will see highs in the 70s for the high terrain and mid to
possibly upper 80s for the valley areas. Heat index values will
fall short of heat advisory criteria today, although it will
still me on the muggy side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight...Heights rise aloft as upper ridging backs in from the
east. Surface high pressure builds in from the southwest, and
with another cold frontal boundary out ahead of it tracking into
our region this evening but stalling near the Hudson Valley
overnight. Shower activity should mostly diminish tonight with
the loss of daytime heating. Tonight will be a tad cooler with
lows mainly in the 60s and perhaps even a few upper 50s in the
high terrain of the eastern Catskills where there will be more
clearing. Some patchy fog could form in the more sheltered areas
that see clearing skies, especially for areas that saw
appreciable rain yesterday.

Friday starts off dry with the surface high and upper-level
confluent flow over our region helping to promote subsidence.
However, a few showers could make it into our Mid Hudson Valley
zones Friday afternoon as an upper disturbance and associated
inverted trough/weak surface low track up the eastern seaboard
and another trough tracks into the Ohio Valley. Highs will be
fairly similar to those on Thursday, with 70s for the high
terrain and 80s for valleys. Depending on how quickly
clouds/showers arrive Friday afternoon, the Mid Hudson Valley
may be slight cooler than areas further north.

Friday night through Saturday...The two aforementioned
shortwaves interact and a surface warm front/dew point boundary
lifts northwards into the Mid Hudson Valley and southwestern New
England. As this boundary lifts north, so does a plume of
deeper moisture which will be lifted up and over the front. This
will allow showers to form and spread northwards, and there
could be some embedded convective elements with pockets of
elevated instability. While this setup does not look nearly as
impressive as the one that brought the heavy rain to northern NY
and VT yesterday, there will still be a decent overlap of mid
and upper forcing along/north of the front with anomalous
moisture (PWATs rise back close to 2" south of the warm front).
Therefore, some heavier rainfall is possible with these showers,
especially if any training occurs. WPC has maintained the
marginal risk ERO, which we feel is appropriate at this time.

There is still some uncertainty just how far north the front
gets, but the best chance for showers and any heavier rainfall
is from the Capital District south and east. Showers look to be
most widespread Friday night into early Saturday morning, with a
drying trend through the day Saturday south and east of the
Capital District. A few daytime instability showers are possible
for northern areas Saturday with the passage of the northern
stream upper shortwave trough. Friday night will be warm and
muggy with lows mainly in the 60s. Highs Saturday will climb
back into the mid to upper 80s for valley areas, and with dew
points more elevated especially south of the Capital District we
could see portions of the Mid Hudson Valley and possibly
southern Litchfield County flirt with heat advisory criteria.
Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday night as heights rise
behind the departing upper shortwave troughs and surface high
pressure ridges in from the southwest. Lows will be mainly in
the 60s with a few upper 50s in the high terrain of the ADKs.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Active weather and above normal temperatures are both expected to
continue through the long term period.

On Sunday, the flow aloft will become fairly zonal behind a
departing surface wave.  Most of the day appears to be dry, although
there could be a stray shower towards evening or for Sunday night,
especially for northwestern areas.  Despite the rather flat flow
aloft, temps aloft will be fairly warm (+16 to +19 C at 850 hpa), so
daytime highs should be well into the 80s with some low 90s in
valley areas.  With muggy dewpoints in place, heat index values be
approaching heat advisory criteria for the typical valley areas.

Monday looks to be an active weather day.  First, above normal temps
will continue, with 850 hpa temps as warm as +20 C.  Daytime highs
in valley areas could be in the lower to middle 90s.  With continued
humid conditions, heat advisory criteria looks easily reached in
valley areas on Monday.  In addition, a disturbance will be
approaching within the flow aloft from the west.  Afternoon and
evening thunderstorms look to develop, with a threat for both strong
storms and heavy downpours possible.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, a stronger disturbance aloft will be
digging into the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast.  There
are some differences in the models regarding the exact timing of
this, but additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
expected on both Tuesday and Wednesday, especially for the afternoon
and evening hours.  Gusty winds and heavy downpours would appear to
be the main threats with this activity each day.   Temps aloft will
be very warm ahead of this approaching disturbance, so more above
normal temps can be expected for both days, with the potential for
more heat advisory criteria being met, especially in southern valley
areas.  Some relief from both the heat and thunderstorms is possible
by the late week, as the cooler temps aloft and surface high
pressure both build towards the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface cold front is just about to pass through the area from
the west. There are a few spotty showers still around but these
will be ending soon with the passing of the front. Will mention
a VCSH based off radar trends for KGFL/KALB, but it should be
done for the other sites.

During the day today, flying conditions should be VFR for all sites.
BKN cigs will continue to be 4-6 kft for all sites for much of the
day, but no additional precip is expected once the front is through.
Southwest winds will gradually become westerly around 5 to 10 kts.
Some clearing is possible towards evening, mainly for the southern
terminals.  It should stay dry into tonight with sct-bkn cigs around
4-6 kft. Winds will become light to calm for tonight. Can`t rule out
some patchy fog developing late, but it`s unclear at this time if
enough clearing will occur for this to happen.

Outlook...

Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Main
NEAR TERM...Main
SHORT TERM...Main
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis