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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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358 FXUS61 KALY 131806 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 206 PM EDT Sat Jul 13 2024 .SYNOPSIS... With a humid air mass in place, some showers and thunderstorms will be moving northward for early this morning, especially for southern areas. Any shower or thunderstorm will be capable of producing heavy downpours. This activity will be winding down by this afternoon, as some drier air starts to move into the region from the west. Dry and quiet weather will return for Sunday and it will remain hot, although not quite as muggy as recent days. More warm and humid weather, along with some additional showers and thunderstorms are expected through much of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Isolated showers and storms continue to develop in the region and will continue through the afternoon. Upper energy beginning to exit through eastern Canada. Sunshine outside of the showers and storms and temperatures will hold well in the 80s to near 90 and around 80 in higher terrain. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure looks to be centered over the area for tonight. This should allow for clearing skies and light winds. Even though dewpoints will be starting to come down, some patchy fog may develop in some areas, especially those that saw recent rainfall or are sheltered by the terrain. Lows will generally be in the 60s, although some high terrain areas may fall into the 50s. On Sunday, high pressure will remain in control at the surface, with the upper level flow fairly zonal. It should be warm aloft to stay fairly capped and no precip is expected on Sunday, with a mostly sunny sky. With the warm temps in place aloft, it will be a rather warm day across the region with highs in the 80s to low 90s. Dewpoints won`t be as high as recent days with values in the 60s, so heat index values should fall short of heat advisory criteria on Sunday. It will be mainly dry for most areas on Sunday night, although a few showers could spread towards the western Adirondacks by the late night hours. Otherwise, it will be another partly to mostly clear night with light winds and mild conditions, with lows in the 60s. For Monday into Monday night, an upper level disturbance will be sliding along within the zonal flow aloft towards the area. Right now, the timing seems to suggest that any widespread showers and t-storms would be later in the day or into Monday evening. While it will be fairly unstable, there is little shear to work with and lapse rates will be weak due to the warm temps aloft, so there won`t be any threat for severe storms. However, any convection could contain heavy downpours. With 850 hpa temps of +17 to +20 C, it will be hot on Monday. Valley areas will be in the lower to middle 90s, and some heat advisories will likely be needed on Monday, especially for the Capital Region and mid Hudson Valley. It will stay mild and muggy right into Monday night. The threat for showers and storms should diminish through the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Hot and humid to start the long term, with chances for mainly afternoon/evening thunderstorms Tuesday. H850 of +18 to +20 C should allow max temps to reach the lower/mid 90s in many valley areas, and with dewpoints in the lower/mid 70s, heat indices will likely reach the upper 90s to lower 100`s for most areas below 1000 Feet. Shortwave energy and approaching height falls and a possible pre- frontal trough may allow for some strong thunderstorms with gusty winds Tuesday afternoon/evening. Warm and humid Tuesday night, with lows in the lower/mid 70s in valleys, and 60s across higher terrain. Depending on the timing of a frontal passage, showers/thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday/Wednesday night, especially southern areas. Otherwise, some cooling compared to Tuesday, with decreasing humidity, especially northern areas. High temps may still reach the lower 90s in southern areas, with mainly 70s to mid/upper 80s elsewhere. Cooler and less humid conditions for Thursday and Friday, with generally fair weather. High temps mainly in the 70s across higher elevations, and upper 70s/lower 80s within valleys. Nighttime lows in the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s Thursday morning, and mainly 50s Friday morning with some 40s possible across the SW Adirondacks. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18z Sunday...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. A few showers have popped up near KGFL and KALB but look to remain outside of the terminal bounds. VFR conditions are anticipated to persist throughout the vast majority of the 18z TAF cycle, though some fog/mist could develop at KGFL/KPSF that could worsen conditions to the MVFR and possibly even the IFR categories. Some mist was indicated to develop at KPOU as well by some thermal profiles, but conditions should remain VFR here. With plenty of sunshine tomorrow morning, mist/fog will burn off swiftly to yield VFR conditions once again at all terminals. Winds throughout the period will remain light and variable at sustained speeds of 5 to 10 kt. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Gant