216
FXUS61 KALY 170850
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
450 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening, along with continued warm and humid
conditions. Cooler and much less humid conditions along with
fair weather will follow in the wake of the front for Thursday
into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
** Heat Advisory in effect for Hudson Valley from southern
 Saratoga County south through Poughkeepsie, and also for
 southern Litchfield County for Noon until 6 PM EDT today **

** Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms expected this
 afternoon and evening, especially from the Capital Region
 south and east **

As of 350 AM EDT, clear to partly cloudy skies continue across
the region with some patchy fog developing within portions of
the Mohawk Valley. Fog may also develop across portions of the
upper Hudson Valley and within the Housatonic Valley closer to
daybreak as winds trend to calm.

Another active day is expected, although coverage of
severe thunderstorms should be less compared to Tuesday, as
low/mid level wind fields will be weaker without the added
benefit of an MCV.

Nevertheless, as a cold front approaches from the west, isolated
to scattered showers/thunderstorms should develop later this
morning across western/central NY and track eastward into the
region. Overall instability parameters look a little less than
Monday, with HREF mean MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg for areas
north and west of Albany, and generally around or slightly over
1000 J/kg from Albany south and east, although some pockets of
1500-2000 J/kg could develop across portions of the mid Hudson
Valley and NW CT where slightly higher dewpoints may occur prior
to convective initiation.

Although 0-6 km shear remains modest, generally 30-40 KT with
highest values across northern areas, low level shear is
considerably less, with 0-1 km SRH generally remaining below 75
m2/s2.

SPC has placed areas from the Capital Region south and east,
including southern VT, within a Slight Risk for severe
thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk extending N and W of this
area excluding far northern Herkimer/Hamilton Cos. Isolated to
scattered damaging wind gusts will be the main severe
thunderstorm hazard, with general thunderstorm mode expected to
be multicellular clusters, with some embedded bowing segments
possible.

Have sided with the warmer 2-meter temps from the HRRR/RAP13 for
today (and similar to the NBM numbers), with upper 80s to lower
90s in most of the Hudson Valley, and mid/upper 80s within the
Mohawk and CT River Valleys, and upper 70s to lower 80s across
the SW Adirondacks and other higher elevations. Dewpoints should
drop into the mid/upper 60s this afternoon, yielding heat
indices in the mid/upper 90s for much of the Hudson River Valley
from the Capital Region southward, as well as across southern
Litchfield County, where a heat advisory has been issued from
Noon until 6 PM EDT today. Afternoon convection should allow for
some cooling to drop heat indices back into the 80s in these
areas by late afternoon/early evening, hence the slightly
earlier end time of the advisory.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers/thunderstorms may continue through this
evening, especially for areas south and east of the Capital
Region. Showers should taper off from NW to SE after midnight,
although could linger until daybreak across portions of the mid
Hudson Valley and NW CT. Lows mainly in the 60s, with some 50s
across the SW Adirondacks.

High pressure builds into the region for Thursday into Friday,
bringing significantly less humid conditions and cooler
temperatures. Upper level trough could spark isolated showers
across portions of the southern Adirondacks Thursday afternoon,
otherwise mainly dry through Friday night.

High temperatures Thursday and Friday generally in the upper 70s
to lower/mid 80s in valleys, and lower/mid 70s across higher
terrain areas. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 50s, with some
40s possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks and higher
terrain areas of the eastern Catskills and southern VT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly sunny and seasonable warm Saturday, then a weak
reinforcing cold front approaching from the north could allow
for isolated showers/thunderstorms for some areas north of I-90
Sunday afternoon, otherwise mainly dry.

A frontal system south of the region may begin drifting
northward by Tuesday. This could allow for isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms to develop for areas mainly south of I-90
Monday afternoon, and across the remainder of the region Tuesday
afternoon. Humidity levels will also increase by Tuesday as
dewpoints reach back into the 60s.

As for temperatures, expect daytime highs through the period to
reach the mid/upper 80s in valleys, and 75-80 across higher
elevations. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s Saturday morning
with some 40s across the SW Adirondacks. Lows Sunday through
Tuesday morning warming slightly into the lower/mid 60s in
valleys, and mid/upper 50s across the southern Adirondacks and
higher terrain areas.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z/Thu...VFR conditions are in place at all TAF sites.
Outside of patchy fog, which may reduce vsbys to IFR/MVFR at
KGFL/KPSF, VFR conditions will continue into early Thursday
afternoon. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are
expected Thursday afternoon at all TAF sites. PROB30 groups were
maintained for possible vsby reductions to IFR/MVFR in any
thunderstorm. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
once again, especially at KALB/KPOU/KPSF. The thunderstorm
threat ends after 00z/Thu with a few lingering showers until
06z/Thu with VFR cigs returning.

Wind will be variable at 5 kt or less through the overnight then
become south to southwesterly at around 10 kt on Wednesday. Wind
will decrease to less than 5 kt Wednesday night.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     CTZ013.
NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for
     NYZ049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Rathbun