150
FXUS61 KALY 071058
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
658 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building in across the region will make
for dry conditions today. While humidity levels will be slightly
better than yesterday, high temperatures will remain very warm.
Tranquility continues into the beginning of the week, but as will
above normal temperatures and the return to elevated humidity.
Shower and thunderstorm potential then increases mid week as a
frontal system approaches the region from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
.UPDATE...As of 658 AM EDT...It`s a beautiful July Sunday
morning with plenty of sunshine throughout eastern New York and
western New England. Temperatures across the region are sitting
largely in the 60s with pockets of upper 50s at higher
elevations and low 70s in the Mid-Hudson Valley. With such
tranquil conditions, few changes were needed to the forecast
with this update outside of minor changes to temperatures to
ensure continuity with latest obs. See the previous discussion
for additional details on today`s forecast...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Yesterday`s weak cold front has finally exited the region to the
south and east, giving way to surface high pressure building in
from the west. Aloft, geopotential heights gradually increase as 700
mb shortwave ridging moves over the Great Lakes. In the wake of
the front, dewpoints have been gradually decreasing such that
values now range from the upper 50s/low 60s at higher terrain
to the mid/upper 60s elsewhere. However, with temperatures
currently spanning the 60s with pockets of upper 50s in the
Southwest Adirondacks and low 70s in the lower Mid-Hudson
Valley, it remains a muggy morning across much of the region.
Additionally, higher low-level humidity paired with mainly clear
skies to promote sufficient radiational cooling has lead to
patchy fog in some low-lying areas.

Dry conditions will persist throughout the day today courtesy of
the aforementioned surface high and mid-level ridge building
farther east toward eastern New York and western New England.
Our mildly drier airmass will ensure lower dewpoints (upper 50s
to 60s) across the region, making for less oppressive heat today
in comparison to yesterday. However, with 850 hPa temperatures
remaining around 14-15 C, high temperatures will still be very
warm with upper 70s/low 80s expected above 1000 ft and mid/upper
80s and pockets of near 90 in large valley areas. Maximum
apparent temperatures will fall below Heat Advisory criteria
with upper 80s to low 90s anticipated in valley areas, but
caution remains advised for prolonged exposure to the heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Tranquility persists into the overnight period tonight with high
pressure remaining dominant at the surface and ridging
increasing slightly aloft. A continuation to mainly clear skies
will aid in temperatures radiating down to the upper 50s above
1500 ft and 60s elsewhere. Some patchy fog could develop again
in sheltered areas with low-level humidity remaining elevated.

Dry conditions will remain steady on Monday, though humidity
will once again be on the increase. At this time, with highs
progged to reach the upper 70s/low 80s above 1500 ft, mid/upper
80s and pockets of low 90s elsewhere, and dewpoints in the upper
50s to 60s, maximum apparent temperatures look to generally
remain below the 95 degree F threshold. However, we will
continue to monitor this element of the forecast closely as some
county zones are close to reaching this criteria. Should
confidence increase today, a Heat Advisory may be necessary
especially for portions of the Mid-Hudson Valley. Low
temperatures Monday will then fall to the 60s with near 70 in
isolated pockets of the lower Mid-Hudson Valley.

Tuesday`s forecast has presented itself to be a somewhat
challenging one as guidance has seemed to slow the progression
of an anticipated frontal system coming from the west. This is
likely due, at least in part, to the presence of and uncertainty
in the track of the remnants of TC Beryl. That said, while
Tuesday has, in previous days, looked to have afternoon showers
and possible thunderstorms, it now looks as though most areas
could remain dry Tuesday. There are some hints that a stationary
boundary draped along portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Long
Island Coasts just to our south and east could be the driver of
some light showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two mainly for
areas south of I-90. Certainly this is possible with modest
instability and shear being indicated on mid-range sources of
guidance. Therefore, kept scattered change PoPs throughout the
day Tuesday before increasing to chance PoPs Tuesday night when
there begins to be a little bit better signal for some greater
coverage of showers and possible embedded rumbles of thunder.
High temperatures Tuesday will be very similar to Monday,
though dewpoints increasing to the mid/upper 60s to low/mid 70s
will drive maximum apparent temperatures into the low to mid and
possibly upper 90s. Heat Advisories are certainly possible and
will be issued should trends continue to indicate the likelihood
of more coverage of 95 degrees or greater. Low temperatures
Tuesday night will span the 60s to near 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The extended forecast begins with former TC Beryl as a post-tropical
system moving northeast from the lower/central MS River Valley
towards the Midwest. The warm front to the system may be near the NY-
PA border.  The low and mid level warm advection increases for
periods of showers with embedded thunderstorms. Sfc dewpoints rise
into the 60s and lower 70s.  The latest PWATS on the NAEFS/GEFS
increase to 1 to 2 STDEVs above normal.  Some locally heavy rainfall
is possible and WPC highlights this risk Wed-Wed night.  PoPs are in
the likely and high chance range and confidence/probabilities are
increasing for widespread 1" or greater rainfall during this 24-hr
time frame.   In the humid air mass, expect max temps to be in the
70s to lower 80s over the higher terrain and lower to mid 80s in the
valleys (a few upper 80s in the mid Hudson Valley).  In the muggy
air mass...low temps will only fall off into the 60s to lower 70s.
The warm front will drift north of the region and become stationary
near the St Lawrence River Valley.

Thursday into Thursday night...The low pressure system formerly
Beryl slowly moves east/northeast towards extreme southeast Ontario
and northern NY.  Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible with enhanced hourly rainfall rates in the tropical
environment with elevated dewpoints and PWATS. Soils may become
saturated in spots so we will have to monitor for any
hydrological impacts. The flash flood threat we will briefly
mention in the HWO WED-THU. Temps will be near seasonal normals
for highs with 70s to lower 80s. The cold front to the system
slides eastward Thu night with scattered showers diminishing.
Lows fall into the 60s with some upper 50s over the southern
Dacks.

Late in the week into the weekend...the cold front stalls near
extreme eastern NY and New England.  The greatest probabilities for
scattered showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
from the Capital Region south and east on Friday. It really depends
if a wave forms and moves along the boundary for the pcpn coverage
to more expansive.  The medium range guidance and ensembles hint at
the boundary being stationary near the New England Coast with
additional scattered showers/t-storms to start the weekend. It will
be humid as temps trend from seasonal readings on Friday to slightly
above to start the weekend.  Overall, the temps are not to atypical
for mid July.   The latest CPC Day 8 to 14 outlook from Jul 14 to 20
continues to forecast above normal temps with slightly above normal
pcpn for eastern NY and western New England.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front is moving east of the New England Coast this
morning, as high pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley. Some
LIFR/IFR fog/mist and stratus will diminish at KPSF between 12Z-
13Z/SUN.  VFR conditions will continue at KGFL/KALB/KPOU with bkn
cirrus closer to KPOU and scattered cirrus and a few-sct
stratocumulus/cumulus further north to KALB/KGFL

Expect VFR conditions to continue through the afternoon for all the
TAF sites with few-sct cumulus/stratocumulus and sct-bkn cirrus.
Some clearing is expected prior to 00Z/MON with the sfc anticyclone
building in over NY and New England. Some patchy radiational mist is
possible for KGFL/KPSF with possible reductions to MVFR and even IFR
levels after 05Z/MON.  We have kept MVFR for now.

Winds will increase at 5-10 KT from the west/northwest by the late
morning through the afternoon and will become light to calm in the
early evening (around 00Z MOn) with the sfc ridge building in.


Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula