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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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934 FXUS61 KALY 151143 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 743 AM EDT Mon Jul 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Humidity levels will increase today through Wednesday with hot temperatures continuing, along with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. A cold front will cross the region Wednesday with additional showers and thunderstorms, followed by cooler and much less humid conditions by late week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... **Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Hudson Valley, including the Capital Region, the Mohawk Valley, Lake George Saratoga Region and northwestern Connecticut noon today through 8 PM Tuesday** .UPDATE...As of 610 AM EDT, cluster of showers and embedded thunderstorms across south central NY and the Catskills continues tracking east. This should expand into the eastern Catskills and southern Taconics within the next 1-2 hours before weakening, and could extend as far north as portions of the Capital Region. These showers/storms seem to be located on the southwest tail of shortwave which crossed the region overnight, and also within an area of developing low level moisture advection. Have added mention of showers for these areas through mid morning. Additional isolated showers across far northern Hamilton County could extend into northern Warren County within the next 2 hours as well, and have added PoPs in these areas accordingly. PREVIOUS [349 AM EDT]...As of 350 AM EDT, weak upper level disturbance tracking eastward across the region is producing widespread mid level cloud patches, along with a few sprinkles/showers, especially across far northern Hamilton/Herkimer Counties. Most showers/sprinkles should shift east of the region, or dissipate by 6 AM. Otherwise another hot day ahead, with slightly higher humidity levels compared to Sunday. Some near term models, particularly the HRRR/RAP13, suggest deep mixing and allows dewpoints to drop off slightly this afternoon into the mid/upper 60s. So, despite max temps reaching the lower/mid 90s for many valley areas, heat indices will only be slightly higher, mainly in the mid to upper 90s, perhaps near 100 across the mid Hudson Valley. Given heat indices above 95 degrees, heat advisories are in effect starting at 12 Noon today for most valley areas. Increasing instability combined with potential lake breeze boundaries should allow for isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. A more organized area of convection, currently associated with MCS across Great Lakes region, should approach western areas toward sunset. Developing cold pools associated with upstream convection and lingering DCAPE of 800-1000 J/kg may allow for strong wind gusts at leading edge of approaching convection. SPC has placed SW Adirondacks within a Slight Risk for severe T-storms, with most of the remainder of the region within a Marginal Risk. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts will be the main severe threat. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Convective cluster should continue moving eastward across the region this evening, with isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts possible. Showers/thunderstorms should gradually weaken and shift east toward and after midnight, with patchy fog possibly developing in its wake. Lows mainly in the 60s, although some valley areas could remain around 70. Hot and humid conditions once again Tuesday, with scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms expected. Dewpoints may be slightly higher Tuesday afternoon, as temps rise into the upper 80s to lower/mid 90s in valley areas. Heat indices should climb to 95-100 in most valleys. Afternoon/evening thunderstorms could contain strong/locally damaging wind gusts once again, with most of the region within a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms, except a Slight Risk across the SW Adirondacks. Warm and humid Tuesday night with showers/thunderstorms gradually decreasing in coverage. Lows in the mid 60s to lower/id 70s. Cold front will gradually settle southeastward across the region during Wednesday. Several rounds of showers/thunderstorms will be possible during Wednesday, especially if a pre-frontal trough moves across the region. Strongest thunderstorms may remain south and east of Albany depending on timing of prefrontal trough, which may scour out the greatest instability and low level moisture. High temps should still reach the mid 80s to lower 90s, and additional heat advisories may be needed for portions of the Hudson River Valley from Albany southward, and perhaps for Litchfield County. Showers/thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday night, especially across the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT as a possible weak wave of low pressure develops along the front with approach of main upper level trough. Low temps in the 50s across the SW Adirondacks, with mainly 60s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper level shortwave trough will be moving across the area on Thursday. As a result, there could be a few lingering showers over the Adirondacks and some passing clouds, especially for early in the day. Temps and dewpoints will be lower than Wednesday as drier air continues to move into the region, with highs only in the mid 80s. High pressure will be moving across the region for Thursday night and Friday. This will continue to allow for noticeably cooler and less humid conditions. After a cooler night in the 50s, highs will only reach the lower to middle 80s on Friday with dewpoints in the 50s. Skies will be mostly clear with no precip. Over the weekend, the high pressure will be departing off to the east. This will start to allow for slightly warmer temperatures and more humid air to start making its way back into the area. Depending on the speed of a northern stream shortwave, there could be a few spotty showers by Sunday afternoon (mainly northern and western areas). Daytime temps will be back into the mid to upper 80s, although dewpoints won`t be too humid just yet. At this point, there doesn`t look to be any concern for any severe weather or heavy rainfall through the entire extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at all TAF sites. Some cumulus will develop from 5-6 kft, mainly for the northern sites this afternoon. A few of these could grow into a shower or t-storm for the late day hours. There will be a medium chance for more widespread convection during the afternoon. Therefore, included VCTS at the northern TAF sites along with a PROB30 for brief MVFR conditions. Convection is expected to diminish during the 04z-06z time range with VFR conditons the rest of the night. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ001- 013. NY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ038>041-043-049-050-052-053-059-060-064>066-083-084. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS NEAR TERM...KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Humphrey