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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
Issued by NWS Albany, NY
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555 FXUS61 KALY 171738 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 138 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, along with continued warm and humid conditions. Cooler and much less humid conditions along with fair weather will follow in the wake of the front for Thursday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... ** Heat Advisory in effect for Hudson Valley from southern Saratoga County south through Poughkeepsie, and also for southern Litchfield County for Noon until 6 PM EDT today ** ** Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening, especially from the Capital Region south and east ** .UPDATE...As of 1055 AM EDT...Calm conditions prevail across much of eastern New York and western New England this morning as a cold front sinks south and east towards the region from the northwestern portions of the state. Clouds have begun to increase from northwest to southeast as a result of this nearing front in and an upper-level trough aloft currently seen on water vapor imagery as digging south and east into the Midwest. Made minor adjustments to temperatures, PoPs and sky cover with this update to reflect latest obs and model trends but as a whole, the forecast remains in good shape. Additional details on today`s forecast can be found in the previous discussion below... [PREVIOUS 353 AM EDT]...As of 350 AM EDT, clear to partly cloudy skies continue across the region with some patchy fog developing within portions of the Mohawk Valley. Fog may also develop across portions of the upper Hudson Valley and within the Housatonic Valley closer to daybreak as winds trend to calm. Another active day is expected, although coverage of severe thunderstorms should be less compared to Tuesday, as low/mid level wind fields will be weaker without the added benefit of an MCV. Nevertheless, as a cold front approaches from the west, isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms should develop later this morning across western/central NY and track eastward into the region. Overall instability parameters look a little less than Monday, with HREF mean MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg for areas north and west of Albany, and generally around or slightly over 1000 J/kg from Albany south and east, although some pockets of 1500-2000 J/kg could develop across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT where slightly higher dewpoints may occur prior to convective initiation. Although 0-6 km shear remains modest, generally 30-40 KT with highest values across northern areas, low level shear is considerably less, with 0-1 km SRH generally remaining below 75 m2/s2. SPC has placed areas from the Capital Region south and east, including southern VT, within a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, with a Marginal Risk extending N and W of this area excluding far northern Herkimer/Hamilton Cos. Isolated to scattered damaging wind gusts will be the main severe thunderstorm hazard, with general thunderstorm mode expected to be multicellular clusters, with some embedded bowing segments possible. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with any thunderstorms given PWAT`s approaching 2". Isolated flash flooding could occur where multiple rounds of heavy downpours occur. Have sided with the warmer 2-meter temps from the HRRR/RAP13 for today (and similar to the NBM numbers), with upper 80s to lower 90s in most of the Hudson Valley, and mid/upper 80s within the Mohawk and CT River Valleys, and upper 70s to lower 80s across the SW Adirondacks and other higher elevations. Dewpoints should drop into the mid/upper 60s this afternoon, yielding heat indices in the mid/upper 90s for much of the Hudson River Valley from the Capital Region southward, as well as across southern Litchfield County, where a heat advisory has been issued from Noon until 6 PM EDT today. Afternoon convection should allow for some cooling to drop heat indices back into the 80s in these areas by late afternoon/early evening, hence the slightly earlier end time of the advisory. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Scattered showers/thunderstorms may continue through this evening, especially for areas south and east of the Capital Region. Showers should taper off from NW to SE after midnight, although could linger until daybreak across portions of the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT. Lows mainly in the 60s, with some 50s across the SW Adirondacks. High pressure builds into the region for Thursday into Friday, bringing significantly less humid conditions and cooler temperatures. Upper level trough could spark isolated showers across portions of the southern Adirondacks Thursday afternoon, otherwise mainly dry through Friday night. High temperatures Thursday and Friday generally in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s in valleys, and lower/mid 70s across higher terrain areas. Lows Thursday night mainly in the 50s, with some 40s possible across portions of the SW Adirondacks and higher terrain areas of the eastern Catskills and southern VT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Mostly sunny and seasonable warm Saturday, then a weak reinforcing cold front approaching from the north could allow for isolated showers/thunderstorms for some areas north of I-90 Sunday afternoon, otherwise mainly dry. A frontal system south of the region may begin drifting northward by Tuesday. This could allow for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop for areas mainly south of I-90 Monday afternoon, and across the remainder of the region Tuesday afternoon. Humidity levels will also increase by Tuesday as dewpoints reach back into the 60s. As for temperatures, expect daytime highs through the period to reach the mid/upper 80s in valleys, and 75-80 across higher elevations. Overnight lows mainly in the 50s Saturday morning with some 40s across the SW Adirondacks. Lows Sunday through Tuesday morning warming slightly into the lower/mid 60s in valleys, and mid/upper 50s across the southern Adirondacks and higher terrain areas. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 18z/Thu...Round of showers and thunderstorms will continue to cross the TAF sites through 00z/Thu with occasional reductions to IFR/MVFR possible in any thunderstorm. Brief wind gusts up to 30 - 50 kts are also possible during any severe thunderstorm. Between 21 and 03 UTC/Thu, some lingering light rain showers will be possible with brief reductions to MVFR ceilings possible, mainly at POU and PSF. After 06 UTC, clouds should clear and with light winds in place, there is potential for patchy fog to develop between 06 UTC and 10 UTC, especially at PSF and POU. Any fog should dissipate shortly after sunrise. Southwest to westerly winds will remain sustained 5 to 15kts with gusts up to 20-25kts. Stronger gusts briefly possible during any severe weather. Winds turn and variable after 00 UTC/Thursday. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for CTZ013. NY...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ049-050-052- 053-059-060-064>066. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KL NEAR TERM...Gant/KL SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...Speciale