556
FXUS61 KAKQ 080555
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
155 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances for
scattered afternoon and evening showers and storms. More
widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday
through Friday. Very warm and humid conditions continue through
much of the week as well. The highest heat indices are
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 150 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of fog over the ocean N of Parramore Island continue to
  spread inland into adjacent portions of the eastern shore
  overnight.

A weak remnant frontal boundary has become nearly stationary
near the coast overnight and is progged to move back north as a
(very weak) warm front later tonight before eventually washing
out. Temps as of 140 AM ranged from the low-mid 70s for most of
the area with upper 70s along the coast under partly to mostly
cloudy skies. Clouds thicken overnight with lows a degree or
two cooler. Areas of fog over the ocean N of Parramore Island
continue to spread inland into adjacent portions of the eastern
shore overnight before lifting after sunrise. Apart from the
marine layer fog, additional patchy ground fog is possible
overnight across S central VA and NE NC. Some model guidance
suggests that isolated to scattered showers (and perhaps an
isolated storm) may develop around sunrise (similar to what
happened yesterday).

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered showers and storms are possible Monday through
  Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening.

- Remaining humid with heat indices of 100-105F Monday.

- Dangerous heat indices in excess of 105F are possible on
  Tuesday and Wednesday, especially inland.

Upper ridging off the SE CONUS coast builds a by Tue as a trough
picks up the remnants of Beryl over the Arklatex region late Mon
into Tue. This will result in slight height rises over the FA with
low- level southerly flow as today`s front washes out to our north.
The height rises will be a bit more pronounced on Tuesday. As such,
high temps will be back to the lower-mid 90s on Mon (and perhaps a
degree or two warmer on Tuesday). CAMs continue to show the
potential for isolated-scattered convection Monday aftn-early
evening (mainly W of the Ches Bay), and will keep PoPs in the 30-50%
range for these areas. Not expecting more than isolated storms on
Mon near the immediate coast. With fairly strong sfc heating and the
lack of deep-layer shear, these will be the typical summertime pulse
storms that could produce localized heavy rain/gusty winds. Tuesday
will feature less in the way of aftn/evening tstms with the rising
heights (PoPs are no higher than 30%...highest along and west of I-
95).

With temps in the low-mid 90s both days (hottest inland), heat
indices will be on the rise yet again. Max heat index values will
generally be 100-105F on Monday with readings aoa 105F looking
likely across interior portions of the FA on Tue. Therefore, Heat
Advisories will likely be needed on Tue for a good part of the FA.
The remnants of Beryl track toward the Great Lakes on Wed with weak
SW flow aloft over VA/NC in between Beryl and upper ridging
offshore. Heights fall very slightly with temps similar to Tue along
with isolated to widely scattered aftn/evening tstms (highest
chances are in the Piedmont). Can`t rule out heat headlines on Wed
(especially inland) where max heat indices are forecast to be ~105F.
Lows in the low-mid 70s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Near normal temperatures and very humid conditions continue
  through next week.

- Remaining unsettled with daily chances for showers and storms.

- The highest precipitation chances will be from late Thursday
through Friday evening. While the threat for severe weather looks to
be limited, locally heavy rainfall is possible late this week.

Unsettled wx is expected late this week into the weekend weak S-SW
flow aloft continues across the area in between broader troughing to
the NW and ridging offshore. The remnants of Beryl lift NE into srn
Quebec by Friday with direct rainfall from the system remaining to
the NW of the local area. PWs likely remain at or above 2.0" through
the week, allowing for very humid conditions. Meanwhile, a shortwave
may track along the southwestern periphery of the offshore ridge
before turning to the N and tracking across the local area late
Thursday through Friday evening. As a result, scattered to numerous
showers/tstms are expected Thu aftn and evening, with showers and a
few tstms likely continuing Thu night and through much of Fri/Fri
evening before potentially tapering off by late Friday night as the
shortwave exits the area. More typical diurnally driven tstms are
expected next weekend. While there likely won`t be as much of a
severe threat, locally heavy rainfall is possible through the week,
especially Thursday through Friday evening. Have likely PoPs for
Thu/Fri with slight chance to chance PoPs next weekend.

Highs Thu in the upper 80s-lower 90s, dropping to the 85-90F range
for Fri-Sat. Lows mainly between 70-75F through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Monday...

Cloud cover increases overnight with mainly VFR CIGs apart from
MVFR/IFR CIGs across S central VA. These lower CIGs may reach
ORF. Marine layer fog has already moved onshore the Eastern
Shore with MVFR VIS expected to drop to IFR later tonight at
SBY. Additional patchy ground fog is possible across S central
VA and NE NC overnight. Fog lifts shortly after sunrise with VIS
improving to VFR. Similar to yesterday, isolated to scattered
showers (and potentially storms) are possible around sunrise
with greater coverage of scattered showers and storms in the
afternoon. IFR VIS is possible with any showers/storms.
Showers/storms taper off by the evening with a return of VFR
conditions under partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms (mainly during the afternoon/evening
timeframe).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 910 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Marine Dense Fog Advisory in effect overnight for ocean zones
  from Fenwick to Parramore Island for VSBYs less than 1 NM.

- Generally benign, typical summertime conditions are expected
through midweek.

Taking a look at are cameras from Ocean City showing reduced
vsbys, and with guidance hitting the low vsbys hard overnight,
have issued a Marine Dense Fog Advisory through 7 AM EDT Monday
from Fenwick to Parramore.

Late this aftn, a weak cold front was stalled just south of the
VA/NC border. Winds were generally N-E 5-10 kt north of the
front, while winds were SW 5-10 kt south of the front. Seas were
2-3 ft and waves were 1-2 ft.

The front will move back north as a warm front late this evening-
tonight, before eventually washing out. Predominately sub-SCA S
or SE winds are expected tonight through Wed, generally 5-15 kt.
A little stronger S winds will be possible Wed night through Thu
night, and could result in at least marginal SCA conditions over
portions of the waters.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
into this evening, with a low risk south. There is a low rip
current risk for all beaches on Mon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RIC had a low temperature of 77F as of 11:59 PM and therefore
was one degree short of breaking the record for warmest low
temperature on July 7th.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ650-652.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...LKB/RMM
SHORT TERM...ERI/RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...SW/TMG
CLIMATE...