938
FXUS61 KAKQ 060200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1000 PM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure lingers offshore with building heat and humidity today
and Saturday. Daily chances of mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms continue into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 935 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms continue
  through early tonight. Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Temperatures remain very warm overnight.

High pressure continues to sit off the SE this evening while a
weak stationary front is situated well the NW. Aloft, a ridge is
in place from the Gulf coast to the Mid-Atlantic with a trough
dipping into the upper Midwest. A moist airmass remains in place
with latest mesoanalysis showing PWATs >2.0" for most of the
area, with 2.3-2.4" over srn VA and NE NC. Did have an
impressive severe storm move through Isle of Wight county into
the lower Peninsula around ~7:30/8 PM this evening with some
reports of damage. Otherwise, this earlier activity has
generally diminished with only isolated showers across the
Piedmont. Cannot rule out additional thunder, though waning
instability and expanding outflow from previous storms have
worked over a good portion of the FA. Have 20-40% PoPs across
the W through early tonight, trending 20% or less everywhere
later tonight. With low-level lapse rates not as steep given the
loss of daytime heating, no more strong-severe wx expected.

Scattered to broken cloud cover is expected to remain in place
overnight, which will aid in keeping overnight temps rather warm.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 70s. A few locations along the
coast may not even drop lower than 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Very hot conditions continue into Saturday with heat indices
  of up to around 110F possible along portions of eastern
  Virginia and northeast North Carolina with 102-107F farther
  west and across the Eastern Shore. A Heat Advisory is in place
  for much of the forecast area.

- Scattered storms are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday
  night. Heavy rain will the main threat with stronger storms.

The upper ridge breaks down some by Saturday allowing the upper
trough and a weakening cold front to approach from the NW.
Meanwhile, an upper level low lingers off the Southeast coast. Hot
and humid weather continues for the FA, though not quite as hot as
today. Highs will be in the mid 90s and dewpoints will stay in the
mid-upper 70s for most of the area, low 70s for NW counties. Heat
indices will rise to 105-108F for much of the area with perhaps a
few locations near the coast reach 110F. Went ahead and issued a
Heat Advisory for most of the FA, except for NW counties and the
beaches. Ahead of the front, afternoon/evening storms with higher
coverage than today are expected. Highest coverage is expected along
the coast where PoPs will increase to 60-70% during the early
evening hours with 30-55% elsewhere. With some stronger mid- level
flow approaching from the NW, better storm organization may allow
for some stronger storms. That being said, the more likely threat
from showers/storms will be heavy rain given the very moist
environments. PWs will once again be over 2". Thus, the WPC has
placed SE portions of the area in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rain.
QPF tomorrow looks like widespread values under 0.5" with localized
areas of 1-2". The cold front approaches the area but stalls,
allowing for PoPs to continue overnight Sat night and into Sun with
the highest PoPs across SE VA/NE NC. Showers/storms gradually move
offshore Sun night. With the convection allowing for rain cooled
air, lows Sat night will be cooler than tonight in the lower 70s W
to mid 70s along the E of I-95. Highs Sun in the upper 80s to lower
90s with lows Sun night in the low-mid 70s expected. Heat indices
will be cooler on Sun (95-100F).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 400 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures and very humid
  conditions continue through next week.

- Remaining a bit unsettled with a chance for mainly afternoon
  and evening showers and storms each day.

Not as hot through the period, but high temps will still be
slightly above normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s
(most in the lower 90s). Humidity sticks around with dew points
in the 70s continuing through the week. Additionally, with lee
troughs and/or weak frontal boundaries in the vicinity of the
region, expect chances for mainly afternoon/evening
showers/storms each day. Best chance for relatively widespread
showers/storms looks to be late in the week when low pressure
potentially impacts the region. Heat indices will mainly range
from the mid 90s to around 100s through the week. Warm and muggy
nights continue as well with lows ranging from the upper 60s to
mid 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

SCT showers/storms have developed across srn VA, with the
highest coverage over SE VA. Reduced VSBY and elevated winds are
most likely at PHF over the next hr or so, with lower chances at
ORF (but still possible). Additional isolated/widely SCT
activity is possible through early tonight, with "highest"
coverage trending W of the terminals. Partly to mostly cloudy
skies move in tonight with MVFR CIGs possible across portions
of SE VA and NE NC (ORF/PHF/ECG) as well as SBY. IFR cannot be
ruled out but looks unlikely as of now. CU redevelops Sat aftn
with more widespread showers and storms redeveloping over
approximately the ern/SE half of the area along a cold front.
Will go with VCSH for now and will refine timing in later TAFs.
Winds will be ~10 kt out of the S through the period (locally
higher in showers/storms).

The front settles near the coast Sunday and washes out, with a
remnant boundary lingering over the area Monday/Tuesday.
Unsettled weather continues through the week with daily chances
for showers/storms.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 830 PM EDT Friday...

SCAs remain in effect for the coastal waters from Cape Charles
northward for seas up to 5 ft and southerly winds around 20kt
with gusts to 25 kt. Elsewhere, conditions are generally 10-15kt
with gusts to ~20kt with 2-3 ft waves in the lower Bay, ~2 ft
elsewhere in the Bay, and 3-4 ft seas for the coastal waters S
of Cape Charles. Have extended the SCA for the nrn three
coastal zones into Sat night, due to 5 feet seas lingering.

Similar conditions are expected on Sat, with S winds again
ramping up later Sat aftn into Sat night, mainly over the
coastal waters. Lighter winds are then expected Sun into early
next week, as the cold front dissipates over the local waters.

A moderate rip current risk is in place for all beaches through
Sat.

&&

.CLIMATE...
No record highs set today 7/6. See below for actual high temps:

- RIC  99 (Record 102/2012)
- ORF  97 (Record 98/2012)
- SBY  94 (Record 102/2012)
- ECG  94 (Record 100/2012)


Record High Temperatures for Sat (July 6):

- RIC  105/1977
- ORF  102/1881
- SBY  102/2010
- ECG  99/2012


Record High Minimum Temperatures Through Sat (July 5-6)

           7/5       7/6
- RIC    79/2012   80/2012
- ORF    80/1999   80/1999
- SBY    81/2012   77/2012
- ECG    77/2018   78/1999

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ012>017-
     030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for VAZ062-
     064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AM/SW
SHORT TERM...AM/RMM
LONG TERM...AM/RMM
AVIATION...AM/SW
MARINE...LKB/TMG
CLIMATE...AKQ